The regular season may have ended, but the WNBA Playoffs begin on Sunday. The Las Vegas Aces look to go back-to-back for the second time in five years. Will the dynasty continue, or will a new team take the crown this year?
The playoffs have several storylines heading into Sunday. The Minnesota Lynx aim to become the first franchise to win five WNBA Championships. The Golden State Valkyries want to win their first title in just their second season. New York will try to win their second title over the last three years, similar to what the Seattle Storm did in 2018-2020. Atlanta looks to win its very first WNBA title, while the Dallas Wings hope to win their first since the franchise relocated two times since their time as the Detroit Shock. Will the Washington Mystics win their second title after quickly rebuilding the franchise around their talented draft picks? Can the Indiana Fever repeat history and win the title after successfully landing the #1 overall pick in consecutive drafts? The first round matchups are revealed below.
#1 seed Minnesota Lynx versus the #8 seed New York Liberty
New York won the season series 2-1:
Liberty 99 - Lynx 86
Liberty 85 - Lynx 90
Liberty 93 - Lynx 81
We get a rematch of the 2024 WNBA Finals, but this time it’ll be a Best of 3. New York had homecourt advantage in that series, and they needed it as Minnesota pushed them to overtime of the decisive Game 5 before the Liberty won their first WNBA Championship.
This should be a fascinating rematch because the Lynx have been by far the better team throughout the regular season. New York struggled to find their rhythm for most of the year and had players in and out of the lineup. The Liberty have a lot of new players this season, but their core of Breanna Stewart, Jonquel Jones, and Sabrina Ionescu remains. Stewart and Jones’s height can cause some problems for the Lynx. They will absolutely be a live underdog in this series, but they’ll need Ionescu to be at her absolute best. Something we haven’t seen most of this year. Statistically, it’s been her worst season since 2021, her second season in the WNBA.
Olivia Miles has been incredible all year and should receive consideration for the MVP award. The fit since Napheesa Collier returned from injury hasn’t been seamless, but they still finished as the top seed. While Minnesota lost several key supportive pieces like Alanna Smith, Jessica Shepard, Bridget Carleton, and Natisha Hiedeman, they’ve barely missed a beat. And they still have arguably the best coach in the WNBA, certainly the most experienced.
I don’t think it’s far-fetched to say either team can win this series, but I lean towards Minnesota because they have the better coaching, homecourt advantage, and more well-rounded roster.
Prediction: Lynx win series 2-1
#2 seed Golden State Valkyries versus the #7 seed Dallas Wings
Golden State won the season series 3-0:
Wings 80 - Valkyries 91
Wings 76 - Valkyries 94
Wings 70 - Valkyries 78
On paper, I’d say this is the least interesting series in the first round. Partly because the Valkyries are a defensive-oriented team that can slow things down and make things “ugly”. But also because Dallas has suffered some injuries (Azzi Fudd, Alanna Smith), reducing their realistic title chances. With that said, Paige Bueckers is the best player on either team and has proven she can will a team to a victory. If Arike gets on one of her hot streaks, she can do the same.
The Valkyries are the deeper team, have arguably the best homecourt advantage in the league, and a coach who is very good at taking away the opposing team’s top scoring options.
I still have my doubts that Golden State will win the entire thing. If it comes down to winning a game or the series is on the line, I would trust A’ja Wilson, Breanna Stewart, Napheesa Collier, etc., over Gabby Williams or Veronica Burton. Even still, I fully expect the Valkyries to get past the first round.
Prediction: Valkyries win series 2-0
#3 seed Las Vegas Aces versus the #6 seed Indiana Fever
Indiana won the season series 2-1:
Fever 84 - Aces 68
Fever 109 - Aces 75
Fever 84 - Aces 86
This is the series that has me the most excited. It features two of the main teams I feel have the best odds of winning the championship. It’s crazy that one of them will be sent home after just two or three games.
I’ve been higher on Indiana than most and maybe even more than they deserve. I thought for certain they’d finish in the Top 4. I had them third overall in my preseason rankings. I think the Fever have every piece they need to win a championship. They have a dominant low-post player (Aliyah Boston), an incredible floor general (Caitlin Clark), and a dominant perimeter scorer (Kelsey Mitchell). Plus, they have solid role players like Sophie Cunningham, Monique Billings, Lexie Hull, and Myisha Hines-Allen.
For Las Vegas, what more can you say about them? They’ve won three titles in the past four years. They have the best player in the world, A’ja Wilson. Jackie Young is arguably the best perimeter player in the league. And Chelsea Gray might just be the clutchest player in WNBA history. Even though they are “only” the 3 seed, I think they should be considered the favorites to win it all. It ultimately comes down to, in a multi-game playoff series, is another team going to be able to beat A’ja and the Aces three or four times?
With that in mind, that is how Indiana can win this series. By facing Las Vegas in the first round, they don’t have to find a way to beat the Aces three or four times. They only need to beat them twice. Going back to last year, once Las Vegas made it to the Finals against the Phoenix Mercury, it was a wrap. Even if Phoenix had managed to steal Game 1, which they nearly did, they were never going to be able to take down A’ja, Jackie, and Chelsea four times to win a Best-of-seven series. But Seattle nearly beat Las Vegas in the first round and had a lead in the decisive game 3 with less than 30 seconds to play, before giving up the offensive rebound and score to Young that ended Seattle’s season. They were one play away from being eliminated in the opening round and rallied to win the whole tournament. Indiana may be able to do what Seattle could not.
Boston can hold her own defensively against Wilson. Clark and Mitchell can likely match what Young and Gray do from a production standpoint. It could come down to the role players. If Jewell Loyd can find her shooting stroke, she might be the difference maker. But if she can’t, I think Indiana has the better depth pieces that could turn the tide in their favor. I also believe the NaLyssa Smith injury (torn ACL) is being massively underrated. Without Smith, other teams will be able to send more post help against Wilson. Smith is too talented and skilled to be left unguarded and is a much more serious threat than when the team previously had Kiah Stokes in that role, or even when they have Brianna Turner there now. If the Aces are eliminated, it might be because they really missed Smith’s rebounding and scoring production.
I am very tempted to pick the Fever to pull off the upset, and I wouldn’t be surprised in the slightest if they do. But until someone takes down the champs for good, it’s hard to pick against the Aces and A’ja Wilson.
Prediction: Aces win series 2-1
#4 seed Atlanta Dream versus the #5 seed Washington Mystics
Washington won the season series 2-1:
Mystics 77 - Dream 109
Mystics 81 - Dream 76
Mystics 79 - Dream 74
If there is a sleeper team that has a legitimate shot at winning the title, I think it could be the Atlanta Dream. Their easiest path to the finals would be if the New York Liberty upset the Minnesota Lynx in the first round, and Atlanta takes care of business against the Mystics in their series to face New York in the semi-finals.
Atlanta’s big problem has been getting it done in the postseason. They’ve been eliminated in the first round of the playoffs in each of the past three seasons. They’re 1-6 in their last 7 playoff games. Will they finally turn things around this year?
The Dream made one of the biggest moves in the off-season by acquiring Angel Reese from the Chicago Sky. Reese has continued her impressive play, which includes an unstoppable motor and the will to be better than her competition. Atlanta has elite perimeter players in Allisha Gray and Rhyne Howard. Jordin Canada is one of the most underrated point guards in the league. Is Reese the missing piece they needed to make a deeper playoff run? I think she is.
Meanwhile, the Washington Mystics feel ahead of schedule. After missing the playoffs over the past two years, they not only clinched a playoff spot this season, but finished as the 5th seed. Drafting Sonia Citron and Kiki Iriafen in 2025 has completely turned their franchise around. They’ve continued to build depth through the draft. They are talented defensively, and might be so inexperienced in the playoffs that the pressure doesn’t get to them.
Atlanta hasn’t been out of the first round of the playoffs since 2018. Washington hasn’t done it since they won the championship in 2019. One of these two teams will make it to the semi-finals this year. I feel the Mystics have already overachieved this season and that the Dream finally have what they need after adding Reese.
Prediction: Dream win series 2-0
Photography Credits: WNBA
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Super excited for a really fun and competitive first round! First round should be best of 5.