Aces Escape 74-73 Part 2

Additional thoughts, discussion, and interviews as the Storm's season comes to an end.

The Seattle Storm were right there. They really did have a legitimate chance to upset the Las Vegas Aces. Game 3 went down to the wire. If only they had boxed out Jackie Young from getting that late-game offensive rebound. If only Coach Quinn had challenged one of the phantom foul calls that benefited A’ja Wilson throughout the game. If only they could have changed up their strategy and double-teamed Wilson in the 2nd half to keep her from scoring nearly 40 points. If only Malonga had made one of those layups. If only Nneka had shot 50% instead of missing nine of 13 shots. If any of those things go Seattle’s way, I’d be writing about the incredible upset that took place in Las Vegas. I could have written about how the Storm avenged their elimination from last season, and that they are making great progress with this group. But it didn’t happen. Jackie Young’s offensive rebound and putback layup catapulted the Aces into the next round of the playoffs. If you want to read the full game recap and haven’t already, you can do so at the link below.

In Part 2, I wrote about the sunk-cost fallacy, potential changes moving forward, and how the Storm deserved a tough matchup with the Aces because they gave away so many games during the regular season. I’ll end with a different perspective: what if they run it back?

Sunk-Cost Fallacy

The dictionary defines the sunk-cost fallacy as “the phenomenon whereby a person is reluctant to abandon a strategy or course of action because they have invested heavily in it, even when it is clear that abandonment would be more beneficial.”

This seems very applicable to where the Seattle Storm sit as a franchise.

The ownership group has invested five years into Coach Noelle Quinn. Allowing her to grow, work through growing pains, and learn on the job. Some of the players have been very public about their support for Coach Quinn and what she means to them. The fact that she is the only African American woman head coach in the WNBA, a league filled with many, is important to them.

But it goes much further than that. The team traded away its lottery pick (4th overall) in 2024 in a move to free up salary cap space so that they could sign both Nneka Ogwumike and Skylar Diggins during the Free Agency period. With those two in the fold, the team had a strong regular season, finishing with a 25-15 record (5th place), but they were swept in the playoffs by the Las Vegas Aces.

Unfortunately, there was inner turmoil that resulted in the Storm’s last franchise piece demanding a trade. That ultimately worked out well for Seattle as they were able to parlay Loyd into Dominique Malonga and the Aces’ 2026 first-round pick (14th overall).

In a sense, the Storm swapped out Breanna Stewart and Jewell Loyd for Nneka Ogwumike and Skylar Diggins. But in 2025, things got worse, not better. So they doubled down. Seattle’s Front Office traded away its 2026 first-round pick for Brittney Sykes because the team was struggling, and they wanted to save the season.

Technically, the Storm have traded away their own first-round pick in three consecutive seasons (2024, 2025, 2026). They traded their 4th overall pick in 2024 to Los Angeles, their 9th overall pick in 2025 to Los Angeles, and their 9th overall pick in 2026 to the Washington Mystics.

The franchise put a lot of faith into Nneka and Skylar, that they would compete for championships. Instead, it’s been two disappointing early exits in the first round. The question is whether or not this is the best they can do. Neither player is getting any younger, and they both had moments where their production dropped off. At what point do the Storm get out of their sunk-cost fallacy?

Changes Needed

I wrote about how changes are needed for 2026 after the Indiana Fever destroyed the Seattle Storm back on August 26th. I think it’s worth going back to, as a lot of what I will write is related to that.

As I wrote about in the article above. The Storm have a lot of options in front of them. At a minimum, it feels like it’s time to change the coaching staff. There have been too many problems, and the team is arguably trending in the wrong direction. Sometimes players need a different voice in their ears. Frankly, sometimes you have to try something different.

I think the franchise needs more than just a coaching change. Seattle has one of the older cores in the league with Skylar Diggins, Nneka Ogwumike, and Erica Wheeler. For a portion of the season, they also had Alysha Clark, the oldest player in the league.

In 2023, they were forced into a rebuild after Sue Bird retired and Breanna Stewart left the team high and dry for Brooklyn, New York. But instead of embracing that. They went to recruit other All-Stars for a retool (not a rebuild) in 2024. I understand not wanting to be a young/bad team. It’s not great for business, for ticket sales, for fan interest, etc. But the WNBA has a proven formula that works.

Building through the draft works. The Storm have done it on two separate occasions with Lauren Jackson and Sue Bird, and then later with Jewell Loyd and Breanna Stewart. The Las Vegas Aces did it by drafting Kelsey Plum, A’ja Wilson, and Jackie Young. The Phoenix Mercury did it with Diana Taurasi and later Brittney Griner. Minnesota did it after the Lynx drafted Maya Moore. The LA Sparks did it by drafting Candace Parker and Nneka Ogwumike.

The Storm are extremely fortunate in that they were able to turn Loyd’s trade request into Dominique Malonga. Malonga has the potential to be an elite player in this league. And it’s fine to not throw that all on her during her rookie season when she is just 19 years old, but there comes a point where you’re just delaying the inevitable.

I believe that Nneka Ogwumike is still a great player, and I think she still can be one in 2026 and probably even 2027. I am less convinced about Skylar. Diggins has been beaten more and more on the defensive end as the season has progressed. Players were blowing by her regularly. Her production on the offensive end has also decreased; she’s likely worn down from playing too many minutes. It’s not that she isn’t a good (even great) player; it’s the fact that too much is put on her plate at this point in her career.

Nneka might still be able to play at an All-Star level, but she doesn’t really fit what’s best for the team’s timeline. If Ogwumike is the team’s best player, I don’t see them beating Las Vegas, Minnesota, New York, Indiana, etc. We’ve seen it for two years, and it hasn’t worked out. Unless you believe that Coach Quinn is 100% responsible for every mistake and poor game played, and that any other coach would have led this roster to a WNBA Championship, I don’t see how it’s in the team’s best interest to stick with what isn’t working.

Ogwumike is good enough to lead the team to one of the last playoff spots and a first-round elimination. I’m not sure how that’s better than going with a youth movement, missing the playoffs, and adding another lottery pick or two to a younger group that includes Dominique Malonga, Jordan Horston, Ezi Magbegor, and the team’s 2026 lottery pick (pick your flavor of Azzi Fudd, Olivia Miles, or Flau’jae Johnson, etc.).

It’s not her fault. She’s done what she’s supposed to be doing for the most part, but Nneka is also blocking the development of both Dom Malonga and Ezi Magbegor. Unless a new coach wants to try a lineup with Nneka at the three (Small Forward), Ezi at the four (Power Forward), and Dom at the five (Center), Ogwumike is going to be blocking the development of one of those two players.

Obviously, both Ogwumike and Magbegor are Unrestricted Free Agents, so there is no guarantee that both players will be back in 2026. But the smarter decision would be to build around Malonga (19) and Magbegor (26) than Malonga and Ogwumike (35).

The Storm Deserved this Matchup

Losing 93-83 to the Connecticut Sun, losing 74-69 to the Washington Mystics at home, losing to the Dallas Wings 87-63 at home, losing twice to the Golden State Valkyries, and losing three times to the LA Sparks were all losses that shouldn’t have happened. Finishing the season with a 10-12 home record should not have happened. There is way too much talent on this roster to lose 21 games this season.

And I’m not saying they should have been 34-10 like the Minnesota Lynx, but even with that. On paper, does the Lynx roster say it should have 11 more wins than the Seattle Storm?

Now it’s the WNBA. A league that is known for its parity. Teams are going to drop a game or two a year that they shouldn’t have. Even Minnesota did that. But with the Storm, it happened far too often. They fell apart in multiple 4th quarters throughout the season, which likely cost them a better playoff seed.

Of course, it’s difficult to say whether Seattle would have been better off facing Atlanta, Phoenix, New York, or Indiana instead of the Aces in the first round. They might have lost to any of those teams. But it just felt like their poor play against easier opponents rightfully cost them a higher seed.

Run it Back?

Despite everything I’ve written above, I will say this. I wanted this one for Noelle so badly. I wanted to see her lead the Storm to a massive upset win over the Las Vegas Aces, proving all the doubters wrong (myself included). I know I have a soft spot for Quinn because I know what it’s like to try your hardest and still have people call for your job. Even if my experiences were at the lower amateur level, it’s something I’ve gone through, and it’s a shitty situation to be in.

Is Coach Becky Hammon a genius because A’ja Wilson scored 38 points? Las Vegas was one or two plays away from having a highly disappointing exit from the playoffs after their 17-game winning streak. Then some idiots online would have been calling for Hammon’s job, even though she had just led them to two championships in 2022 and 2023.

If I want to play Devil’s Advocate with myself or be the glass-half-full guy, then I can start to talk about how and why the team should run it back. The Storm have a very strong core of players. They have talent across the board with Nneka, Skylar, Gabby, Ezi, Dom, Slim, and Wheeler. Even if they don’t retain everyone, I think a large portion of the core will be back. They’re also bringing Jordan Horston back. They have a Top 5 lottery selection that hopefully will be Top 3. Katie Lou Samuelson is a player, I believe, they want to bring back as well to help as another floor spacer and three-point shooter.

If we’re looking at the positives. The team did have a more impressive showing in the playoffs than they did in 2024. They truly were one defensive rebound away from advancing to the semi-finals, which I felt was an appropriate goal for this season. It’s frustrating that they didn’t get there. I wanted it for them, so that their hard work would be rewarded.

Rebounding and a little more three-point shooting are the team’s biggest needs. Those can be addressed in the draft and Free Agency. It’s also possible that they can try to change the looks they give on defense to do a better job of crashing the boards. Lastly, Dom Malonga playing more should lead to better rebounding totals.

Regarding whether to do a coaching change or not. Ultimately, it comes down to whether or not the ownership group believes it is best to stay the course or try something new. They can also get feedback from the players. If they really want to keep specific players around, and those players really want Quinn to return, then I imagine that’s what will happen.

It would have been nice for the Storm to win this series against the Aces because it would have given them a better idea of where they are at. They matched up poorly against the Indiana Fever in the regular season, so it’s possible they would have been swept by them like they were during the season. However, Seattle was swept by the Aces in 2020 during the season, and then swept them in the WNBA Finals. It’s difficult to say what would have happened in the postseason between the Fever and Storm. It’s probably unlikely, but there is a world where if they could have just beaten the Aces that Seattle wins the Championship this year. Especially, considering how well they matched up against the Minnesota Lynx.

I’m much more convinced that the 2022 team would have won the title if they could have just gotten past Las Vegas than this 2025 team. But we truly don’t know.

If the team chooses to run it back with the players and coaches, then I can say they will be closer to a championship run in 2026 than if they opt to go into a longer rebuild, which would likely mean moving on from Skylar, Nneka, and the coaching staff.

The question is, would the improvement be enough to justify running it back for another year? Between this season and last season, the team was worse in the regular season, finishing 7th in 2025 and 5th in 2024. But they were slightly better in the playoffs, winning one playoff game in 2025, instead of being swept in 2024.

Can Nneka and Skylar really lead a team to a WNBA Championship or at least the WNBA Finals at this point in their careers? Can they do it with this coaching staff? If the owners believe they can, then I can see them giving everyone another year to try and get it done.

Post-Game Press Conference

If you prefer the audio versions, you can listen to them below.

Player Interviews

Las Vegas Aces:

Seattle Storm:

Coach’s Quotes

Aces Coach Becky Hammon:

Storm Head Coach Noelle Quinn:

Notes:
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Photo Credits: Seattle Storm/WNBA Photography

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