Around the W: 2nd Half Predictions

The 2nd half of the WNBA season starts today. What happens next?

I was originally going to call this “Bold” Predictions for the rest of the WNBA season, but I don’t think I’ll be saying anything too outlandish. I’ve written down some thoughts on several teams and how this season might play out by the end of the year.

Despite Impressive Seasons From PHX, SEA, and ATL…

At times this season, the Phoenix Mercury, Seattle Storm, and Atlanta Dream have looked like legitimate WNBA title contenders. We’ve seen the Dream pick up impressive wins over the Indiana Fever, the Seattle Storm, and the New York Liberty. The Mercury were the first team to defeat the Liberty at home and have beaten them twice this season. The Storm were the first team to defeat the Minnesota Lynx. They also have one of the best resumes against the league’s top teams as they’ve defeated Minnesota, New York (twice), Phoenix (twice), and Atlanta so far this year.

Despite all of that, the Minnesota Lynx and the New York Liberty will meet each other in the WNBA Finals for a second year in a row. Of course, this take would have been a little more “Bold” had I finished this article before the Emma Meesseman news broke. ESPN’s Alexa Philippou reported that Meeseman will sign with the New York Liberty soon to try and win a championship with them this year.

The Liberty have looked a lot more vulnerable since Jonquel Jones has been out with an injury. But some of their issues go beyond just missing Jones. They’ve had defensive and rebounding problems. Breanna Stewart is shooting a career-low 20% from beyond the arc.

JJ is scheduled to return to action as soon as their first game back from the All-Star break. We’ll see how she does and if she’s on any type of minutes restriction. The Liberty are a much more dangerous team when Jones is playing.

Adding Emma Meeseman to the fold will make them even better. But with that said…

Minnesota Lynx Will Clinch the #1 Seed

Minnesota has been the best WNBA team this year. They aren’t perfect. They can be beaten. But they consistently bring their A game more than any other team in the league. The Lynx finished the first half with a 20-4 record. They have a 3.5 game lead over the New York Liberty. They have a four-game lead or more over everyone else.

While it’s certainly possible that the Liberty will catch them, especially with the addition of Meesseman and the fact that these two teams play one another four more times this season… New York could take the #1 overall seed by the end of the regular season, but they won’t.

The Lynx will finish the year with the best record in the WNBA. I also believe that Minnesota will finish the season with the most regular-season wins in WNBA history. There is, of course, a caveat to that because the WNBA used to play fewer games.

Some of the best regular season records in WNBA history include the 1998 Houston Comets (27-3, .900 win percentage), the 2000 and 2001 LA Sparks (28-4, .875), the 2010 Seattle Storm (28-6, .824), the 2014 Phoenix Mercury (29-5, .853), and most recently the 2023 Las Vegas Aces (34-6, .850).

Minnesota will get to 35 wins (or more) this season. They will have to finish 15-5 to reach that mark. That’ll be no easy task as the Lynx have the fourth most difficult remaining schedule of all the teams. They also have the hardest remaining schedule of the current eight playoff teams. That includes four games against New York, three against Indiana, and two each against Atlanta and Seattle.

Caitlin Clark Won’t Be Fully Healthy

My original “bold” prediction was going to be that the Indiana Fever would surpass both the Atlanta Dream and the Seattle Storm in the standings by the end of the season. However, that appears less likely with the news that Caitlin Clark is set to miss even more time with her groin injury, and the fact that the Fever have the second-most difficult schedule of any projected playoff team.

Unfortunately, Clark has been marred by multiple injuries this season despite resting her body in between the 2024 and 2025 WNBA seasons. Clark did not try to play in any European leagues overseas. Caitlin also opted out of playing for Unrivaled despite numerous attempts to recruit her.

She made sure to rest and take care of her body, but despite her best efforts, she has been dealing with nonstop injuries since training camp. Clark has dealt with a left quad strain, a left groin injury, and now a right groin injury.

It’s unclear if the physical nature of the WNBA has taken its toll on Clark or if it’s just been bad injury luck this season. What we do know is that these types of soft tissue injuries tend to linger.

Caitlin Clark has been ruled out of Tuesday’s game against the New York Liberty. The Fever are hopeful she will return to action later this week. And she might. But the way these types of injuries work, I would fully expect Clark to be in and out of the lineup throughout the remainder of the season. I’d be shocked if she misses Tuesday’s game and then plays all 20 remaining games on Indiana’s schedule.

Without Clark, I don’t expect the Fever to drop out of the playoff picture. They have far too much talent on their roster for that. But it likely will impact their ability to finish in the Top 4 in the WNBA standings.

The Storm’s Season Will Depend on Their Bench

The Seattle Storm have proven that when they play at their absolute best, they can beat just about everyone in this league. Even still, there is no denying that they rely too heavily on their starting rotation. As the WNBA season expands to 44 games, that will be problematic when the team reaches Game 35, Game 40, Game 44, and so on. The Storm have had a recent trend over the past few years of wearing down toward the end of the season.

Currently, Seattle’s starters average the second-most minutes of all 13 WNBA teams at 30.8 MPG. Gabby Williams is playing 34 MPG, Skylar Diggins 33 MPG, and Nneka Ogwumike 32 MPG. This is how players get worn out and their production drops as they get deeper into a 40+ game season.

By contrast, the Storm’s bench unit plays the second-fewest minutes and has the second-lowest point production of all 13 teams. Seattle needs to play their bench more, and the reserves need to step up. This will give them more confidence, put them into a better rhythm, and also allow for the starters to be more well-rested so they can play at their absolute peak with the game on the line.

Lexie Brown played 14 minutes against Golden State, knocked down two three-pointers, scored seven points, and had her best game of the season. If healthy, she should be given time to get her live reps on the court and get into a rhythm.

At 19 years old, rookie Dominique Malonga is still inexperienced and will make mistakes, but her best moments have come against the two best teams in the WNBA, where she single-handedly altered those games in favor of the Storm. She must be given the opportunity to play, learn, and grow because it’ll pay massive dividends come playoff time.

Seattle must find the rotations that work. It’s not five in and five out. Pair Ezi Magbegor and Dominique Malonga with either Gabby or Skylar. Have Alysha Clark and Lexie Brown out there with Nneka Ogwumike so that they can space the floor and take advantage of Ogwumike doing work inside the paint.

Even though many want to crown the New York Liberty again before the playoffs even begin, and the Minnesota Lynx have looked like a team on a mission all season long, the Seattle Storm have proven they have the talent to beat these teams this year. It’s all going to depend on how the bench is utilized in the second half of the season.

Either the starters are going to be ground down to dust and be worn out, where they get swept in the first round of the playoffs. Or they’ll find a better balance that’ll keep the star players fresh, and they’ll have the opportunity to reach the semi-finals (Final Four) and possibly the WNBA Finals.

The LA Sparks Will Make a Playoff Push

Despite their 8-14 record through 22 games, the LA Sparks have a talented team. Kelsey Plum, Dearica Hamby, and Azurá Stevens all could have been named All-Stars this year. Plum earned her 4th All-Star appearance. The team also has last year’s lottery selection, Rickea Jackson, who is another talented scorer averaging over 13 PPG. They also hope that Cameron Brink, 2nd overall pick in 2024, will return from her ACL injury at the end of this month (we’ll see).

The Sparks have beaten the Fever, Aces, and Mystics this year. They’ve also had some competitive losses against the Mercury and Dream. As teams return from All-Star break, they face the Washington Mystics (11-11) on Tuesday (7/22) and then the lowly Connecticut Sun (3-19) on Thursday (7/24). They also face the Las Vegas Aces in Los Angeles to end their July schedule. If they can pick up wins in all three of those games or at least two of them, they’re going to put themselves into a position where they can battle with Washington and Las Vegas for one of the final playoff spots this season.

If the Sparks are going to make the playoffs, they’re going to have to surpass two out of these three teams in the standings: the Golden State Valkyries, the Las Vegas Aces, and the Washington Mystics. It’s still going to be an uphill battle for them. It won’t be easy, but they just beat Connecticut and Washington right before the All-Star break. If they do that again in their first two games post-All-Star break, they will have won four games in a row, nearly doubling their win total from the first two months of the season.

The Valkyries Will Miss the Playoffs

The best story of the WNBA season, the feisty expansion franchise, the Golden State Valkyries, will miss the 2025 playoffs. Golden State had been a solid playoff team in the standings for several weeks, but after going 1-5 to start the month of July, they have fallen down to the 9th seed in the league.

They are just one game out currently, so they’ll have their opportunities to right the ship and get back into the conversation quickly. But they are trending in the wrong direction. Other teams and other coaches are starting to figure them out. They also have a brutal final month of their schedule where they face the New York Liberty, Seattle Storm, and Minnesota Lynx (twice). The one asterisk to that is it’s possible by that time, teams like the Lynx and Liberty may have their playoff seeding locked in and could rest their star players.

Honestly, it’s an interesting debate on what would even be best for the franchise on whether they make the playoffs as one of the last entrants or miss the playoffs altogether to secure a Top 5 Lottery pick. There are arguments for both sides. If they miss the playoffs, they’ll be locked into a top-five pick in what appears to be another talented draft class. If they make the playoffs at the 8th seed, instead of having a Top 5 pick, the best draft selection they could have would be 8th overall, as the Toronto and Portland expansion teams will be awarded picks 6 and 7 in the 2026 WNBA Draft.

If they make the playoffs, there are several benefits. It helps build a winning culture, and it helps boost the confidence of the players and their belief in the coaches. Coach Natalie Nakase deserves to be in serious consideration for Coach of the Year, whether they make the playoffs or not, but the argument for her to win the award is much easier to make if Golden State is a playoff team. If voters aren’t paying attention, they’ll just vote for one of the teams that has the best record in the WNBA, and they won’t even consider Nakase. Making the playoffs also gives “Ballhalla” (Chase Center) the opportunity to host a playoff game. And I wouldn’t even put it past the Valkyries to advance past the first round if they get a matchup that works well for them (Seattle, Indiana, etc.).

Lastly and most importantly, what kind of message does that tell all the pending free agents in 2026 if the expansion franchise can play in front of 18,000+ fans every night, that have quality coaches who build up their players, and can reach the playoffs in Year 1? What is the franchise capable of if more true star players join the team? Making the playoffs would be a huge recruiting tool for the Valkyries in what will be the most important Free Agency period of this new era of the WNBA.

Final Thoughts

As we gear up for a fun conclusion to another WNBA franchise, I thought I’d make some “bold” predictions of what might play out over the remainder of the year. With that said, I hope a lot of these don’t come true. It doesn’t benefit the league or its players long-term if Caitlin Clark continues to deal with injury issues and isn’t healthy. The Golden State Valkyries missing the playoffs isn’t nearly as fun of a story compared to if they finish in the Top 8. The Sparks making the playoffs would be horrible for the Storm and their draft next season. Seattle burning their starters out and losing in the first round of the playoffs again would require a major reflection on the direction of the franchise moving forward, and the Lynx and Liberty rematching in the Finals might not be as fun as a fresh matchup could be if we get the same result.

I might be way off on these predictions, but as they say, “nothing ventured, nothing gained.”

Notes:
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