Around the W: Mid-Season Thoughts
Who are the true contenders? Who should get MVP consideration? Plus more!
We reached the All-Star break, and we’re a little past the midway point of the 2026 WNBA season. Here are some of my thoughts on what’s been happening so far this year.
Valkyries Surging
One of the best stories of the first half of the 2026 WNBA season is that the Golden State Valkyries have been even better in their encore performance. After becoming the first expansion franchise to make the playoffs in their inaugural season, the Valkyries are looking to be legitimate title contenders in Year #2.
Danny wrote a recent summary on how the Valkyries have been the hottest team in the league since the end of June. That’s allowed them to vault up the WNBA standings to the second-best record in the league.
This isn’t some random fluke either. Coach Natalie Nakase has her team playing extremely hard, especially on the defensive end, where they lead the WNBA in Defensive Net Rating (100.9). They also own the third-best overall Net Rating (6.8), trailing only the Indiana Fever (7.2) and the Minnesota Lynx (10.3).
The addition of Gabby Williams, combined with the improved bench play from Kaitlyn Chen and Janelle Salaün have the Valkyries competing for a Top 4 finish and homecourt in the first round of the playoffs.
The playoffs will prove whether or not they’re ready to be legit title contenders or not.
True Contenders
While the Valkyries have been an excellent team, I still question whether they are true contenders. It simply comes down to this. If their three-pointers aren’t falling, or their defense isn’t playing as sharp as it needs to be, do they have enough go-to players who can take over a game and beat the Las Vegas Aces, who have A’ja Wilson, Chelsea Gray, and Jackie Young? Do the Valkyries have enough to counter a Lynx team with Napheesa Collier, Olivia Miles, Kayla McBride, and Courtney Williams? I think their best bet is avoiding those teams and hoping they are eliminated by other teams earlier in the postseason before they have to match up against them.
Right now, I see three true contenders I believe in, with an additional four teams that could find their way to the WNBA title if everything clicks. Nobody expected the Chicago Sky to win the 2021 Championship when they were a borderline playoff team in the regular season and finished 16-16 before catching fire in the playoffs. Nobody expected the Phoenix Mercury to make the WNBA Finals last year over other teams like the New York Liberty or Minnesota Lynx.
True Contenders
The Las Vegas Aces remain my top choice to win the championship. A lot of that has to do with the fact that they have A’ja Wilson, and every other team doesn’t. But it’s more than that. They have a strong core of players who have championship experience. Las Vegas has won 3 out of the last 4 titles (2022, 2023, 2025). They have multiple closers who can get a bucket in the final minute of a game with Wilson, Gray, Young, and I’d even include Jewell Loyd. They also know that come playoff time, it’s serious business, and they won’t give games away like they might in the regular season. We saw them coast throughout the majority of the regular season last year, before they got serious and turned it up a notch. Once they did, no other team was able to compete. Ultimately, I have a hard time seeing A’ja Wilson lose four games in a seven-game series. The best way to knock them out is to do it early, like Seattle nearly did one year ago.
The Minnesota Lynx were primed to go back to the Finals in 2025, but a major injury to Collier and some clutch plays by the Mercury ended that dream. After losing Alanna Smith, Bridget Carleton, and Jessica Shepard in the offseason, I thought the Lynx would take a step back this year, especially knowing that Collier would miss at least the first month of the season. Due to the incredible play of rookie Olivia Miles, that didn’t happen. They have secured the #1 seed through the first three months of the season. Now with Collier back, they should have enough to go toe-to-toe with the best teams in the league come playoff time. The Lynx don’t really have any major weaknesses. They have excellent balance with Collier, Miles, McBride, Williams, Howard, etc. They have the best coach in the WNBA and a highly effective system that they run to perfection. As long as they stay healthy this year, they’ll have as good a chance to win as anyone.
I think the Indiana Fever fall into the true contenders list despite having a worse regular season record (currently) than Dallas or Golden State. Last year, the Fever took the eventual champions, the Las Vegas Aces, to overtime of the decisive Game 5 in the semifinals and nearly beat them. That was without a healthy Caitlin Clark and with several other players suffering from injuries as well. While Clark still deals with occasional back issues, the Fever have been healthier this year, and they will be dangerous come playoff time. They really have just about everything a title contender needs. They have a point guard who scores and sets up her teammates consistently for easier shots, they have a shooting guard who can catch fire and score 30+ points in a game, and they have a dominant low-post presence. At her absolute best, Aliyah Boston can be one of the most dominant players in the league. Beyond their Big 3, they also have strong complementary pieces like Lexie Hull, Monique Billings, and Sophie Cunningham for additional defense, rebounding, and three-point shooting. After getting back-to-back #1 overall picks in 2023 and 2024, the expectation is that the Indiana Fever will win a WNBA Championship. Could that be as early as this year?
Potential Contenders
The four other teams that could find themselves in the Finals if everything starts to click are the Dallas Wings, Atlanta Dream, Golden State Valkyries, and the New York Liberty.
For the Wings, my biggest concern is their lack of a dominant post player. The Alanna Smith signing hasn’t worked out. Jessica Shepard has had an unbelievable season, but she is more of a point-forward than she is a strong low-post presence. Dominique Malonga put up 37 points and 12 rebounds against the Wings, highlighting some of their weaknesses. If they get matched up against Aliyah Boston or A’ja Wilson in the playoffs, I think that could be their undoing. I’m aware that the Wings currently own a 3-1 record against those teams this season, but come playoff time, things often change.
I touched on Golden State’s potential issues at the top of this section. There are questions around their offense, especially if the three-point shooting isn’t landing. Plus, will they have players that step up and make huge plays with the game on the line when they’re going up against someone like A’ja Wilson?
The Atlanta Dream are an interesting team because, on paper, they should have pretty much everything they need to win it all. I predicted they would be a Top 4 team this season before any games were played. A 5-game losing streak from the end of June to early July set them back in the standings, where they currently sit in 6th place at 16-10. With 18 games remaining, they have enough runway to get back into the Top 4 before the end of the season. And a returning Brionna Jones should help with that. The Dream somewhat surprisingly lost in the first round of the playoffs last year. Is it a lack of experience in those moments? Neither Rhyne Howard nor Allisha Gray has won a playoff series in their careers. When the time comes, and their number is called, will they finally come through when it matters the most?
The New York Liberty are one of the more confusing teams this season. At times, they look like the Championship team that won the 2024 WNBA title. They played excellently leading up to the Commissioner’s Cup and then won the tournament, beating an A’ja Wilson-less Las Vegas Aces team. And yet, they have hovered only a couple of games above a .500 record for a good portion of the season. There are legitimate concerns for the team. Is Chris DeMarco a good WNBA coach? Will Satou Sabally be able to return to action after suffering multiple concussions over the past year? Will Sabrina Ionescu improve her play in the 2nd half (statistically, she’s having her worst season since 2021)? Can Jonquel Jones still play at an elite level on both ends? Is Betnijah Laney-Hamilton going to be traded or just ride the bench the rest of the season? New York has enough talent and experience to win the championship, but when there are this many questions to resolve, can they overcome them all?
JuJu Sweepstakes
While those top teams will battle it out for the 2026 WNBA Championship, another portion of the league will look to win the next best thing. USC Shooting Guard JuJu Watkins is projected to be the 2027 #1 overall pick if she declares for the draft. She can technically play one more season in college, but with the WNBA’s improved CBA and higher pay, I’m not sure that she will. If she enters the draft, she will go #1 because she is an elite scorer and a strong defender. She reminds me a lot of Maya Moore when I watch her play. Watkins is very smooth and can score at all three levels.
Realistically, five teams could end up with the #1 pick and JuJu Watkins, with two of them being heavy favorites. However, all five have a reasonable shot because the other three teams could end up with the third-best odds to win the lottery.
The Connecticut Sun currently have the best odds with a two-year winning percentage of 0.254. The Chicago Sky are right behind them at 0.268. Unfortunately for Sky fans, Chicago’s pick will be swapped with Washington’s. This means that the Mystics, who are currently a playoff team, could make the playoffs with their excellent young core, and then add JuJu Watkins in the draft next Spring.
The other three teams that will have a realistic shot at Watkins would be the two expansion franchises, the Toronto Tempo and Portland Fire, and the Seattle Storm. Unlike the Golden State Valkyries, it doesn’t look like the Tempo or Fire will make the playoffs during their inaugural season.
As of this writing, coming out of the All-Star break, the Tempo have the third-best odds to land the top pick in the draft. Because the Tempo and Fire will only have one year to base their odds on, it’ll just depend on what their win percentage is at the end of the 2026 season. Toronto is sitting with a 10-16 record and a 0.385 win percentage. The Seattle Storm are 4th despite a league-worst 6-23 record because they finished last year as a playoff team with a 23-21 record. Seattle has a 0.397 winning percentage, and the Portland Fire round out the group with a .407 win percentage. It’ll be difficult for any of these three teams to catch Connecticut or Chicago (Washington), but whichever team finishes with the third-best odds will still have a great chance at landing a Top 2 lottery pick.
Due to their higher combined win totals, it is less likely that the Phoenix Mercury or the LA Sparks will finish in the Bottom 5. The Sparks are closer, but they’re also expecting to get Kelsey Plum back on the court soon. And they built their team around veterans like Nneka Ogwumike and Ariel Atkins. If everyone is healthy, the Sparks will push to make the playoffs, even if they still miss out.
MVP Considerations
Four-time WNBA MVP A’ja Wilson is the best player in the WNBA. It almost seems like she’s been penciled (maybe Sharpied) in to win her 5th MVP award since Week 1. But should she be?
Wilson leads the WNBA in scoring at 26.1 PPG. She is third in rebounding (9.5 RPG) and ranks first in blocked shots (2.0 BPG). She will be the favorite, but other players should receive consideration.
Olivia Miles
19.3 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 6.0 APG, 1.3 SPG
The fact that the Minnesota Lynx were the best team in the WNBA without Napheesa Collier in the lineup is a credit to the incredible job that Olivia Miles has done in her rookie season. She’s taken over as their lead point guard and orchestrated the offense without a hitch. Her ability to break down defenses and set up her teammates for success played a large role in Natasha Howard being named to the All-Star team for the first time since 2022.
Without Miles, I don’t believe the Lynx would have the best record in the WNBA. They might not even be a Top 4 team if it weren’t for her excellent play. I think there is an argument that can be made that Miles has truly been the most valuable player this season.
Paige Bueckers
20.9 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 6.2 APG, 0.7 SPG
The Dallas Wings have had one of the best turnarounds from a season ago, when they finished with the worst record in the WNBA. More than halfway through the season, they sit in 4th place and would host a playoff series if they can hold onto that.
A huge reason for their success is due to the incredible season Paige Bueckers is having. She’s been an excellent closer, winning multiple games down the stretch for her team. Bueckers has a much better supporting cast than she did last season, but the Wings’ success still falls heavily on her shoulders.
Jessica Shepard
14.9 PPG, 12.0 RPG, 5.4 APG, 0.7 SPG
If there is one thing that would hurt Bueckers’ case for the MVP award, it would be that her teammate, Jessica Shepard, has also had a major impact on the Wings’ success this season. She has four triple-doubles this year and leads the WNBA in rebounding at 12.0 RPG, ahead of Angel Reese (11.5 RPG), A’ja Wilson (9.5 RPG), and Shakira Austin (9.5 RPG).
No player in WNBA history has ever finished a season averaging 15+ PPG, 10+ RPG, and 5+ APG; although Alyssa Thomas came awfully close. Jessica Shepard has a legitimate chance to be the first player in league history to do so. With her team aiming for a Top 4 finish in the standings, there is a case to be made that she is the most valuable player to her team.
Caitlin Clark
21.0 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 7.9 APG, 0.9 SPG
Caitlin Clark is the only player on this list who is Top 5 in scoring at 21.0 PPG and Top 3 in assists at 7.9 APG. She’s currently second behind Alyssa Thomas, who averages 8.3 APG.
Clark orchestrates the WNBA’s best offense. The Fever score the most points in the league at 95.5 PPG. They are also the third most efficient offense, averaging 47.9% FG on their shot attempts. They have the highest Offensive Rating in the league at 114.2.
It’s true that the strong play from her teammates, Kelsey Mitchell (23.3 PPG, 2.7 APG) and Aliyah Boston (17.3 PPG, 8.5 RPG, 2.8 APG), plays a factor in this. But Clark is the point guard who does an excellent job of setting her teammates up to give them easy scoring opportunities, similar to what we’re seeing in Minnesota with Olivia Miles.
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