Around the W: The Playoffs are Here!

Welcome to the 1st round of the WNBA Playoffs!

The longest regular season in WNBA history is finally over. The league completed its first-ever 44-game season, and eight teams remain vying for the WNBA Championship. It was a season filled with storylines. The dominance of the Minnesota Lynx, the impressive resurgence of the Las Vegas Aces, the absurd amount of injuries to the Indiana Fever, Atlanta and Phoenix having better seasons than New York, the incredible debut of the Golden State Valkyries and them earning a playoff berth, another incredible rookie class, and the catastrophe that was the Chicago Sky.

Despite Paige Bueckers living up to her hype as the #1 overall pick, the Dallas Wings managed to win just 10 games this season. The Wings have won only 19 games over the past two years. By comparison, the Minnesota Lynx have won 64 games.

Connecticut and Washington were expected to be bad, and they were. But both franchises have a lot to look forward to with impressive rookies Sonia Citron, Kiki Iriafen, Saniya Rivers, Aneesah Morrow, and Leïla Lacan.

The Los Angeles Sparks, with Kelsey Plum, made a late push for the playoffs, but were outlasted by the Seattle Storm and Golden State Valkyries. And with that, we have our final eight teams. Minnesota, Las Vegas, Atlanta, Phoenix, New York, Indiana, Seattle, and Golden State.

Let’s take a look at the first-round playoff matchups.

#1 Minnesota Lynx versus the #8 Golden State Valkyries

Head-to-Head: Lynx won 4-0

Game 1: Lynx 86 at Valkyries 75
Game 2: Valkyries 71 at Lynx 82
Game 3: Lynx 78 at Valkyries 72
Game 4: Valkyries 53 at Lynx 72

The Golden State Valkyries have defied expectations all year long. No one expected them to have a chance at making the playoffs, and yet they did. They are the ultimate underdogs going against a powerhouse Minnesota Lynx team.

The Valkyries won more games than any other expansion franchise in WNBA history and became the only one to reach the postseason. They were able to frustrate opponents with their aggressive zone defense. Their ability to clog the paint made it difficult for opposing teams to score on them.

Unfortunately for Golden State, despite all the positives, they struggled against the WNBA’s best teams. They were swept by the Lynx and Mercury. They also lost the season series to the Aces, Dream, and the Liberty.

All year long, the Minnesota Lynx have been the best team in the WNBA. They might have cruised a bit towards the end, especially after clinching the number one overall seed, but they’ve been the most balanced team in the league. They are extremely efficient on offense, leading the WNBA in field goal and three-point field goal percentage.

Napheesa Collier has played at an MVP level all season. Minnesota has three-point shooters up and down their lineup. As good as the Valkyries have been to muck things up, slow the game down, and force other teams to play “ugly”. I have a hard time seeing GSV scoring enough to topple Minnesota.

Final Prediction: Minnesota wins series 2-0.

#2 Las Vegas Aces versus the #7 Seattle Storm

Head-to-Head: Tied 2-2

Game 1: Aces 82 at Storm 102
Game 2: Aces 75 at Storm 70
Game 3: Storm 90 at Aces 83
Game 4: Storm 86 at Aces 90

The Las Vegas Aces and Seattle Storm will meet in the playoffs for the 4th time in the past five years. Seattle earned its 4th WNBA Championship after sweeping Las Vegas in 2020. The Aces ended Sue Bird’s career in 2022, eliminating the Storm in the semi-finals three games to one. Las Vegas went on to win their first WNBA Championship that year. The Aces swept the Storm in the opening round of the 2024 WNBA playoffs in what would be Jewell Loyd’s final game with the franchise.

Since Becky Hammon took over the Aces, Las Vegas has won 17 out of 22 games against Seattle. That includes a 5-1 record in the playoffs against Coach Noelle Quinn and the Storm. For what it’s worth, Hammon and the Aces have dominated most of the WNBA over the past four seasons. By just counting the regular season, they’ve won 117 games and only lost 43 games since 2022.

The Storm have looked much more competitive against Las Vegas this year, which included a lopsided victory for Seattle back on May 25th. However, three of the four games between these two teams this year took place within the first 5 or 6 weeks of the season. The Aces have looked significantly different since early August. They’ve won 16 games in a row leading into the playoffs. Vegas hasn’t lost since August 2nd (over a month ago). Meanwhile, the Storm limped into the postseason. They didn’t clinch their playoff spot until the final game of the regular season.

If Seattle is going to win this series, they’re going to have to get huge games from Nneka Ogwumike and Skylar Diggins. They’ll also need players like Dominique Malonga and Erica Wheeler to make major contributions off the bench. Lastly, the perimeter defense of Brittney Sykes and Gabby Williams will have to find a way to slow down Jackie Young, Chelsea Gray, and Jewell Loyd.

Unfortunately for the Storm, Las Vegas seems to have too many advantages. The Aces are red-hot while Seattle has struggled mightily over the past month. A’ja Wilson is still generally considered the best player in the world. And overall, Las Vegas’ star players have played better than Seattle’s. Coach Becky Hammon has had Coach Quinn’s number throughout their playoff matchups. Lastly, the Aces own the homecourt advantage.

Final Prediction: Las Vegas wins series 2-0.

#3 Atlanta Dream versus the #6 Indiana Fever

Head-to-Head: Tied 2-2

Game 1: Dream 91 at Fever 90
Game 2: Fever 81 at Dream 76
Game 3: Fever 58 at Dream 77
Game 4: Dream 82 at Fever 99

The Atlanta Dream impressed throughout the season. Their team had a major overhaul from both free agency and by swapping head coaches. Atlanta built a team that can win inside or out. Brionna Jones and Brittney Griner can dominate down low while Allisha Gray and Rhyne Howard knock down three-pointers from beyond the arc.

Coach Karl Smesko has encouraged all of his players to take more three-point attempts. Players like Naz Hillmon have improved their game significantly this season.

No team has suffered more from injuries than the Indiana Fever. The big story was the fact that Caitlin Clark missed 31 games this season, but they also lost Sophie Cunningham, Aari McDonald, Sydney Colson, and Chloe Bibby to season-ending injuries. They’ve had to replace nearly half their team. Despite all of that, Indiana still managed to earn the 6th seed thanks to the excellent play of Kelsey Mitchell and Aliyah Boston. Natasha Howard and Lexie Hull have also played important roles this year. Odyssey Sims had a positive impact, joining the team late in the season.

Indiana has been battle-tested more than any other team; because of that, they will have a legitimate chance to win this series. They also have a great home crowd, and their fans travel better than any other team in the WNBA. I expect they will make this a tight series. In the end, I think Atlanta will get it done, but it’s going to be close.

Final Prediction: Atlanta wins series 2-1.

#4 Phoenix Mercury versus the #5 New York Liberty

Head-to-Head: Phoenix won 3-1

Game 1: Mercury 89 at Liberty 81
Game 2: Liberty 91 at Mercury 106
Game 3: Mercury 76 at Liberty 89
Game 4: Liberty 63 at Mercury 80

On paper, the 4/5 matchup is by far the most exciting. The defending champions, the New York Liberty, surprisingly didn’t finish as a Top 4 seed. That means they’re going to have to go on the road throughout the playoffs if they want to repeat as champions.

New York’s disappointing finish in the standings is mainly due to them dealing with injuries up and down their starting lineup throughout the year. Breanna Stewart missed 13 games. Jonquel Jones also missed 13 games. Sabrina Ionescu missed six games this season. Nyara Sabally missed 27 games. Natasha Cloud missed a few games as well. It’s not quite to the extreme as the Fever have had to deal with, but it hasn’t been ideal for the champs.

Meanwhile, the Phoenix Mercury have been one of the most interesting success stories all season long. They made huge moves to acquire Alyssa Thomas and Satou Sabally in the offseason. However, they also filled out their roster with many unknowns and overseas players who lacked extensive WNBA experience. Players like Monique Akoa Makani and Kathryn Westbeld played large roles in the Mercury’s success this year.

What is going to be so interesting about this Mercury/Liberty matchup is that Phoenix has been a tough matchup for New York this season (they won the season series 3-1). The Mercury also hold the homecourt advantage and will have Game 1 and Game 3 (if necessary) take place in Phoenix, Arizona.

Phoenix has proven it can beat New York this year. They were the first team to hand the Liberty a defeat at home. It wouldn’t be shocking if the Mercury advance to the next round. And yet, it’s difficult to go against the defending champions. When New York has had their full squad fully healthy, they’re arguably still the best team in the WNBA.

Of all the first-round matchups, this one feels like it is the most likely to go the full three games. I think the Liberty get it done and move on to face the Minnesota Lynx in the semi-finals in a rematch of the 2024 WNBA Finals.

Final Prediction: New York wins series 2-1.

Notes:
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