How Long Should a Rebuild Take in the WNBA?

The Storm's front office has a lot of work to do in order to rebuild a competitive playoff team.

The 2023 WNBA season wasn’t ideal for the Storm as the team was ushered into a state of uncertainty once Breanna Stewart chose to leave Seattle and join the New York Liberty.

The team knew they would be moving forward without legendary point guard Sue Bird, who retired at the conclusion of the 2022 season. But they had hopes of bringing in All-Star point guard and Kent, Washington native, Courtney Vandersloot as the franchise’s new lead guard.

Seattle’s Plan A was to retain Stewart and bring in Vandersloot to continue their championship window alongside Jewell Loyd and upstart forward, Ezi Magbegor. Once those plans fell through the team had to look towards Options C and D.

They added veteran guards Kia Nurse and Sami Whitcomb. As well as several other young pieces through the draft and additional players with limited WNBA experience. Seattle ended up keeping four rookies on their roster - Jordan Horston, Ivana Dojkić, Jade Melbourne, and Dulcy Fankam Mendjiadeu.

The Storm took flyers on players like Arella Guirantes and Kaila Charles. And while neither player finished the season with the team I liked the front office’s approach to trying to find a player that could provide a legitimate spark on a minimum contract.

At best, the team was going to find another solid contributor and at worst, a minimum contract on a one-year deal wasn’t going to negatively impact the team’s ability to make bigger moves in future seasons.

As we know, the Storm finished the season with the second-worst record in the league (11-29). The team will pick 4th overall in the upcoming 2024 WNBA Draft.

Seattle got a big win before the team’s final game as Jewell Loyd agreed to a new two-year contract extension keeping her with the franchise through at least the 2025 season.

Loyd was one of the lone bright spots for the Storm in the 2023 season. She led the WNBA in scoring with 24.7 PPG and set a new record by scoring a total of 939 points in a single season; breaking Diana Taurasi’s previous record (thanks to more regular season games). She was also named the MVP of the WNBA All-Star game and to the 2nd All-WNBA Team.

Despite Loyd’s heroics the team consistently struggled. They lacked a legitimate third scorer behind her and Ezi Magbegor. The team averaged 78.8 PPG which ranked 11th out of 12 WNBA teams in 2023. The Storm clearly missed their floor general, Sue Bird, this past season. Without an established point guard, the team averaged a league-worst 17.7 assists per game.

Coach Noelle Quinn emphasized the need to acquire a starting point guard for 2024 during exit interviews.

It will take a lot of work to turn the Storm back into legitimate title contenders. But the question is, how long should that take? Most teams don’t go from basement dwellers to one of the top teams in the standings in a single season. It can be a multi-year process. Let’s take a look at some other franchises around the WNBA and the process of their rebuilds.

Seattle Storm

The Storm’s only major rebuild beyond their first expansion years was about as ideal as possible. After reaching the playoffs in 10 consecutive seasons that included winning two WNBA Championships between 2004-2013 the team struggled during the 2014 season. Lauren Jackson retired* after the 2012 season and Tina Thompson retired the following year.

Seattle went 12-22 in 2014 which was tied for the worst record in the league. They won the draft lottery and selected Jewell Loyd #1 overall. The Storm continued to struggle in Jewell’s rookie season finishing with the second-worst record in the WNBA at 10-24. They lucked out and won the lottery again which allowed them to draft Breanna Stewart #1 overall in 2016.

After back-to-back #1 overall picks, the team returned to the playoffs in Stewart’s rookie season. While they made the playoffs, they were one of the lowest seeds and would be eliminated in the first round. The same thing happened again in 2017. The disappointment of the 2017 season resulted in a coaching change and the team went on to hire Dan Hughes for the 2018 season.

After two mediocre seasons, Loyd and Stewart with the addition of Natasha Howard and veteran leader, Sue Bird, led the Storm to the number one overall seed in 2018 and went on to win the WNBA Championship in just Stewart’s third season. They would win the title again in 2020.

After missing the playoffs for two consecutive seasons, the franchise was able to turn that into two franchise cornerstone players and immediately become legit title contenders again in just a few years. A rebuild can’t go any better than this. Unfortunately, this may not be the most realistic scenario to try and replicate. It was essentially a perfect rebuild within a very short amount of time that required being bad at the right time, getting lucky in the WNBA Draft, and being lucky that the two years the team had number one overall picks, they were able to draft two game-changing superstars in back-to-back seasons.

Las Vegas Aces

Between 2007 and 2014 the (then) San Antonio Stars reached the WNBA Playoffs seven times in an eight-year period. The team then had four consecutive seasons with losing records, missing the playoffs in all four years between 2015-2018.

After missing out on the Breanna Stewart sweepstakes during the 2016 Draft Lottery, the Stars and (eventually) Aces struck gold not once, not twice, but thrice! The franchise became the first WNBA team to land the #1 overall pick in three consecutive drafts in 2017, 2018, and 2019.

Not only did the team win the lottery three times in a row, but they hit on all three picks drafting Kelsey Plum, A’ja Wilson, and Jackie Young. All three players have made the All-Star team at least twice each in their careers. Wilson has won two league MVP awards and all three players have been named to either the All-WNBA First or Second Team honors during their careers.

After missing the playoffs four years in a row, the Las Vegas Aces have since gone to the playoffs in five consecutive seasons. This includes reaching the WNBA Finals in three out of those five years and ultimately winning back-to-back WNBA Championships in 2022 and 2023.

It’s true that the Aces signed a critical piece in Free Agency when they added Chelsea Gray, but the majority of their core was acquired through the draft. Teams need to do well in both areas but the draft is critical. The core that they built through the draft has led to the greatest success their franchise has ever seen.

The fact that the Aces were able to replicate what the Storm did should give Seattle’s front office some confidence that another successful rebuild can be done in a relatively short manner. Las Vegas/San Antonio, did end up having more losing seasons than Seattle did and they didn’t win their championships quite as fast; Wilson won her first WNBA title in her 5th season and Plum won it in her 6th season whereas Stewart won the championship in her 3rd year and Loyd her 4th.

With that said, the Aces still have their championship core intact and the Storm do not. Las Vegas has won back-to-back championships and will be favored to three-peat in 2024.

As we dig deeper into the topic, we’ll come to learn that sometimes these rebuilds take longer than expected or simply don’t work out at all.

Indiana Fever

The Seattle Storm and Las Vegas Aces are best-case scenarios when looking at rebuilding a franchise. However, not all teams are that lucky. Having multiple lottery picks in a row isn’t a guarantee that the team will win a championship within five years. In the case of the Indiana Fever, it’s not even a guarantee the team will reach the playoffs.

The Fever used to be one of the premier WNBA franchises. They reached the playoffs in 12 consecutive seasons between 2005-2016. A lot of that was thanks to the incredible play from Tamika Catchings. However, once Catchings retired after the 2016 season, the team lost its way.

After missing the playoffs again in 2023, the franchise has now failed to reach the postseason in each of the past seven years. Since then they’ve selected 2nd, 3rd, 3rd, 4th, 2nd, and 1st. They will pick 1st again in the upcoming 2024 WNBA Draft.

The players they selected were Kelsey Mitchell, Teaira McCowan, Lauren Cox, Kysre Gondrezick, NaLyssa Smith, and Aliyah Boston. Objectively speaking, I’d say they nailed four out of the six selections. Three of the six players remain on the roster today and Teaira McCowan has played well with both the Fever and the Dallas Wings.

Despite some pretty good players acquired through the draft, the franchise has not been able to put it all together. The team has been through multiple coaches and a couple of General Managers during this playoff drought.

The Fever have proven that just tanking and losing a lot for multiple seasons, isn’t a foolproof plan that will guarantee a team turns into a perennial contender. The franchise needs good ownership, smart front-office workers, and strong coaching to be a championship-caliber organization.

Dallas Wings

Dallas is another franchise that has been working towards a rebuild for quite some time. The franchise was dominant while they were in Detroit making the playoffs in seven consecutive seasons that resulted in three WNBA Championships. However, with ownership problems, the team relocated to Tulsa, Oklahoma. And while they were in Tulsa they missed the playoffs five years in a row and only reached the playoffs in their final year in Tulsa (2015).

Upon relocating again, this time to Dallas, the Shock were renamed the Wings but their struggles continued. They missed the playoffs in three of their first five seasons in Dallas. And the two times they did reach the postseason they were eliminated immediately in the first round in single elimination games.

In 2023, the team finally started to turn a corner. They finished 4th overall in the WNBA standings and they finally won a playoff series. It was the team’s first series win since 2009 when they were back in Detroit.

While the team is certainly headed in the right direction, it’s taken a long time to get there. Longer than many Wings fans expected. During their eight years in Dallas, the Wings have reached the playoffs five times and missed the playoffs three times. However, in their five playoff appearances, they have only won one playoff series and that was this past season against Atlanta.

Frankly, the team has not been very good at drafting players when factoring in how many lottery selections and first-round picks the Wings have had over recent years. Since 2017, the team has made 16 first-round selections! Of those 16 picks, seven were lottery selections (Top 4) and if we expand things out to players selected in the Top 5 that number grows to 11.

Of those 11 players selected in the Top 5, only three have been named to at least one All-Star team. Those three are Arike Ogunbowale, Satou Sabally, and Allisha Gray. And Gray wasn’t named an All-Star until she moved on to her new team, the Atlanta Dream. What may be more damning is the fact that four of those 11 players selected in the Top 5 are already out of the league completely.

The Dallas situation reminds us that teams can load up on lots of first-round draft picks, collecting a numerous amount in the Top 5 which in theory should lead to several quality players if not a few game-changers, but if the General Manager isn’t making good decisions it can be all for naught.

What Can the Storm Do?

Play the Long Game

The Storm could take a more patient approach to rebuilding the team for the long haul. This would require the team to be very conservative in their approach to rebuilding quickly. They would not make any major splash moves in Free Agency and instead, the focus would be to primarily build through the draft. However, this would likely require multiple seasons similar to the one they just had in 2023. That means the team and its fans would have to deal with a lot of losing. Not just one bad season but several.

The franchise would need to earn multiple draft lottery selections, ideally landing at least one or two #1 overall picks and in totality three to five Top 3 selections. The hope would be to build a nucleus of a young core together. As we stand here today, that would include Ezi Magbegor (24 years old), Jordan Horston (22), and ideally Jade Melbourne (21), if her current WNBL production can carry over to the WNBA.

If Seattle can hit on their 4th overall pick - potentially players like Aaliyah Edwards, Kamilla Cardoso, or Rickea Jackson; and that player turns into, at minimum, a plus starter if not someone with All-Star potential. The Storm would have a legitimate core to build around. And if they could add another 2-3 lottery selections to that core the front office would have a chance to build a competitive squad that could grow up together and potentially compete for a championship in 3-5 years.

In a perfect world, going through this longer rebuild could result in the team seeing similar success to what the Las Vegas Aces are enjoying right now. However, there are certainly risks. Selecting the wrong players in the lottery could see the team waste a few years of rebuilding similar to what we’ve seen with the Fever.

Another major drawback to going this route is that it would essentially be wasting a good portion of the remaining prime of Jewell Loyd’s career. Loyd agreed to sign with the team for two more seasons. But it would be all for nothing if the team continued to play as one of the worst teams in the entire league.

The front office could even consider, with Loyd’s approval, trading away the superstar before the 2025 season to acquire either a second lottery selection or a youthful player that at least had All-Star potential. If the team made that type of move they would also risk alienating the fanbase, some of the players, and the team would lose their veteran leader.

Look for the Quick Fix

I think it’s pretty evident after watching last season that the team is not simply just one player away from being a Top 4 team in the WNBA. But there is talent on the current roster. Seattle has two All-Star players, Jewell Loyd and Ezi Magbegor. And the front office can make more moves.

While looking over the 2024 Salary Cap sheet, I believe the team has enough money to pay a free agent a maximum contract. Would the team offer Skylar Diggins-Smith a max deal to create one of the most lethal backcourts in the WNBA with her and Loyd? Could the Storm recruit Jonquel Jones away from the New York Liberty? Those feel like the two biggest splash moves the team could make during Free Agency but there are others.

Adding a player like Natasha Cloud or Brionna Jones would certainly help the Storm be more competitive in 2024. They could also opt to use their 4th overall pick to swing a trade for a player like Elena Delle Donne or Nneka Ogwumike. Those moves would be more short-sided. Trying to compete with the top teams now instead of building for the future.

A Bit of Both

I believe that the best way to build a legitimate contender is through the draft. Especially when you factor in that rookies are under club control for multiple seasons at lower salaries. That also allows teams to then be more aggressive in Free Agency or trades because they aren’t up against the salary cap.

The top talent coming out of college and from the International game will be selected by the teams that are drafting in the lottery. Fourteen #1 overall picks have gone on to win the WNBA Rookie of the Year award. Of the 27 teams to have won the WNBA Championship, 19 of them have had at least one #1 overall pick on their roster.**

It’s certainly not a coincidence that teams like the Storm and Aces, who ended up landing multiple #1 overall picks in a row, were able to turn that around into multiple WNBA Championships.

However, the best front offices and General Managers in the WNBA will look to do both. They build a strong core through the WNBA Draft and then they add the missing pieces either through Free Agency or trades. The Storm acquiring Natasha Howard was a critical move that helped Seattle turn the core of Sue Bird, Jewell Loyd, and Breanna Stewart into legitimate title contenders. The Las Vegas Aces added Chelsea Gray in Free Agency to their core of Plum, Wilson, and Young and that ultimately resulted in back-to-back championships.

With that in mind, I think Seattle could certainly make a big push for some top free agents this upcoming Free Agency period. As talked about above, if they could land a player like Skylar Diggins-Smith or Jonquel Jones it should immediately push them into playoff contention. Plus they can still build for the future with their younger core and the addition of the 4th overall pick.

So How Long …?

If they end up striking out on the top free agents, the franchise can always look to take a more patient approach. Frankly, I don’t think it’d be the worst thing in the world if the Storm missed the playoffs again in 2024 and ended up with either the #1 or #2 overall pick in the 2025 WNBA Draft. That especially holds true if Caitlin Clark, Paige Bueckers, or any other top players choose to stay in college for an additional season.

Seattle has done an exceptional job of drafting when they get the top pick in the draft. And the team’s overall draft record is above league average when it comes to scouting and acquiring talented players.

We know it’s possible to perform a complete rebuild in the WNBA within roughly three years. We also know that if a team loses focus, loses its identity, drafts poorly, and is forced to make coaching and/or general manager changes, a rebuild may have to stop and start all over again resulting in five, six, seven, eight or more years of this process. And nobody wants to deal with losing for that long.

It’ll be up to the Seattle Storm ownership, front office, coaches, and players to get the franchise back on track for the team’s 5th championship in a timely manner.

Notes:
*While Lauren Jackson didn’t officially announce her retirement after the 2012 season, that was her final season in the WNBA.
**A fun article I found towards the end of writing this piece talks about the importance of getting the #1 pick in the WNBA Draft.

To my paid subscribers, thank you for your continued support! I know the end of the calendar year is super slow for the WNBA but things should pick up here quickly as Free Agency is about to begin!