Storm Soar Past Sky Part 2

Additional thoughts, discussion, and interviews from Seattle's win over Chicago.

The Seattle Storm (22-19) completed their sweep over the Chicago Sky (9-30). It wasn’t the prettiest of victories, but it was an important one as the Storm inch closer to clinching a playoff spot with three games remaining on their schedule. Seattle’s perimeter defense was excellent as they held Ariel Atkins, Rachel Banham, and Kia Nurse to 16 points total. The Storm made 18-18 from the free throw line, and they knocked down six more three-pointers (+18 in points) from beyond the arc. You can read the full game recap at the link below.

In Part 2, I wrote about the Magic Numbers for the Seattle Storm and other playoff hopefuls, how the team had to overcome being without Dominique Malonga, with some thoughts on Ezi Magbegor, and how August prepped the Storm for the playoffs.

Magic Numbers

Four teams have officially clinched playoff spots. The Minnesota Lynx (31-8), Las Vegas Aces (26-14), Atlanta Dream (25-14), and Phoenix Mercury (25-14) have all clinched their trip to the postseason. With the Washington Mystics’ 37-point loss to the Golden State Valkyries (20-18), they have officially been eliminated from the playoffs. That leaves five teams for four spots.

The New York Liberty (24-16) need one more win or one more loss by the LA Sparks (17-20) to clinch their spot.

The Indiana Fever (21-18) lost their head-to-head against the Sparks, so they must finish at least one game ahead of Los Angeles in the standings. The Fever have five games remaining, and the Sparks have seven games left on their schedule. The best the Sparks can finish is 24-20 if they win all seven of their remaining games. If Indiana goes 4-1 or 5-0, they would clinch. But they can also clinch at 3-2 if LA loses another game. Indiana could go 2-3 if the Sparks finish 5-2 or worse. Indiana’s Magic Number to clinch should be four.

The Seattle Storm (22-19) have just three games remaining on their schedule. If they go 3-0, they would finish 25-19. That would be enough to clinch a playoff spot because the Sparks (17-20) could only finish 6-1 because if Seattle goes 3-0, then LA has to lose at least one game. If the Sparks finish 6-1, they would be 23-21. Seattle would be 25-19 and the Sparks couldn’t catch them. If the Storm lose to the Sparks on Monday, things get a bit trickier. If Seattle loses that game, they lose the head-to-head tiebreaker (1-3) against Los Angeles. That means if the two teams finished with the same record, the Sparks would advance to the playoffs and Seattle would hand a lottery pick to the Mystics.

But if Seattle wins against LA on Monday, then the first tiebreaker (head-to-head) would be tied at 2-2. The next tiebreaker per the WNBA is record versus .500 opponents. The Storm currently have 11 wins over teams with a record of .500 or better. If my math is correct, the Sparks have 7 wins over teams with a record of .500 or better. This specific tiebreaker only comes into effect if Seattle wins on Monday, so we have to count that as a loss for LA for this scenario. Beyond that, the best LA can do would be to have 11 wins over .500 opponents. That would require them to go at least 4-3 (and up to 6-1) to get there. However, if they did go 6-1 with that one loss being to Seattle, they would finish above .500 on the season. And that means Seattle would add two more wins to their total and have 13 wins over .500 opponents. Which would then give them the tiebreaker.

I don’t really see a scenario where Seattle and LA would have to go to a third tiebreaker. But if they did, it’s the point differential between the two teams in their head-to-head games. The Storm beat the Sparks by 31 points in the first matchup. It can only get to this tiebreaker if the Storm win on Monday, and if somehow the two teams finish with the same number of wins over .500 opponents. Seattle can add more wins over .500 opponents as well by defeating either the New York Liberty or the Golden State Valkyries during their remaining games.

Now if the Storm lose to the Sparks on Monday (just don’t!). But if they do … it does get a little trickier, but also simpler than the convoluted mess I just wrote above. If the Sparks win on Monday, Seattle MUST finish with a better record than LA. If the Storm go 0-3, they would finish 22-22. They would need LA to go 4-3 or worse in their final seven games. The Sparks’ final seven games are against Washington (home), at Seattle, at Atlanta, at Atlanta, Dallas (home), at Phoenix, and Las Vegas (home). They will probably get wins over Dallas and Washington at home. In this scenario, they also get a win over Seattle, then they would need two wins against Atlanta, Phoenix, or Las Vegas. They certainly could get that, but three of those games will be on the road, and all three of those teams are battling for a Top 4 seed, so they will all be super motivated to win.

Things get more complicated for Los Angeles if Seattle beats either New York or Golden State. If the Storm go 1-2 with a loss to LA, then the Sparks would need to go 6-1 or better. This is why I wrote that 23 wins for the Storm would be like a 90% (or higher) lock for them to make the playoffs.

Before Seattle won against Chicago, I believe their Magic Number was down to four because the Sparks lost to Indiana on Friday night by one point (Thank you, Odyssey Sims!). Now that the Storm have 22 wins, their magic number should be down to three IF they beat Los Angeles. Otherwise, it is still four.

Lastly, the Golden State Valkyries improved to 20-18 after defeating the Mystics. They own the head-to-head tiebreaker over Los Angeles as they took that season series 2-1. That means they just need to tie LA at the end of the regular season. They are in a pretty good position for that, as they currently have three more wins than the Sparks.

If the Sparks go 7-0 (unlikely but possible), then the Valkyries will have to go 4-2. For every game Los Angeles loses from here on out, that equals one less game the Valkyries need to win. If the Sparks go 6-1, then the Valkyries only have to go 3-3. If LA goes 5-2, the Valks just need to go 2-4. And so forth.

Golden State and Indiana play on Sunday, so one of those teams is guaranteed to pick up a win, which should help either team make the playoffs.

Missing Malonga

Dominique Malonga missed Saturday’s game against the Chicago Sky due to a left wrist injury that she suffered at the very end of the Minnesota Lynx’s game on Thursday. She was questionable for the game and was a late scratch.

Without Malonga, the Storm were down to three healthy post players. Starters Nneka Ogwumike and Ezi Magbegor, plus rookie Mackenzie Holmes. I was wondering if Quinn would play Holmes or if she would run with a small-ball lineup with someone like Gabby Williams or Tiffany Mitchell to play the Power Forward position.

I think because the Sky’s primary scorers are Angel Reese and Kamilla Cardoso, that Quinn didn’t have much of a choice. Holmes did a good job of filling in at the last minute. She was able to play 12 minutes, which allowed Nneka and Ezi to get periodic breathers.

While her stats from this game aren’t going to wow anyone, she was a very important player in Seattle’s win over Chicago. I spoke with Nneka Ogwumike about others having to step up. And the media asked Coach Quinn a similar question after the game.

Ogwumike told me, “Yeah, you know, Dom not being active today it meant that we had to compensate in other areas and I mean rebounding has been a point of emphasis all year and especially against the number one rebounding team we wanted to try and not only exceed our expectations, but also make up for the rebounds that Dom contributes to in that category. And coming in with 12 solid minutes of Mack, a lot of what she does, whether she gets in the game or not, never shows up on the stat sheet. Mack is someone who is incredibly disciplined, and she's always ready. So I had no doubt, whether it was today or in future games, that she'll capitalize on the opportunity. And she had the schemes down, she was aggressive, she got her hands on balls. So I'm just really grateful that we have depth in the front court.”

Coach Quinn added, “Mack has done an excellent job of staying ready every single day. Her sprints, her workouts, her film sessions, what she does in a weight room. And so to have her have this opportunity today, I was very confident because I know she was prepared for it. I thought she played 12 big minutes against a front court that is dynamic, physical, and rebounds well. I thought she held her own. She didn't look tired at all, obviously, because she's super prepared for the moment. She's asked the right questions. She's locked in all the time. She's an excellent teammate, so very deserving of her opportunity here, but also in this particular moment, I thought she did well.”

It’s actually very fitting that Holmes got this opportunity, as I interviewed her ahead of Saturday’s game for a feature piece I’m doing on her. Keep an eye out for that article coming soon.

During the pre-game press conference, Quinn indicated that she didn’t think Malonga’s injury was too serious. We’ll see if she plays on Monday against the LA Sparks. If she misses anything beyond that game, then it could be time to worry.

Despite being a 19-year-old rookie, the Seattle Storm will need her in the playoffs. They’re likely to be matched up against Las Vegas, Atlanta, or Phoenix. The Aces and Dream specifically will be a big challenge with players like A’ja Wilson, Brionna Jones, and Brittney Griner.

Ezi’s Big Girl Struggles

There were moments in this game against Chicago that I felt Ezi struggled with the size or physicality of Cardoso or the ferocity of Reese. She was out-muscled at times down low. Cardoso and Reese combined for 20 rebounds total and seven on the offensive glass. Kamilla got to the rim at times, bullying her way to the basket.

Similar to moments against the largest Centers in the league, such as Brionna Jones, Aliyah Boston, and Jonquel Jones. Of course, those three players are some of the very best in the league. They are all multiple-time All-Stars. Ezi Magbegor is still one of the top defensive post players in the WNBA, even with her slight build. But there is a specific type that does give her some trouble.

While Ezi will likely always have a slighter frame. There is still the possibility that as the years go on, she can build even more strength. Brionna Jones is 29, and Jonquel Jones is 31. Magbegor just turned 26 the other day.

But another thing I’ll be curious to see is how the pair of Magbegor and Dominique Malonga works out. When Ezi was younger, she talked about being more of a four (Power Forward) than a five (Center). She also used to play the four when Liz Cambage was still playing with Team Australia.

Assuming Ezi decides to re-sign with Seattle after this season. I will be curious to see the long-term (post-Nneka) lineup for the Storm. I would expect Malonga to be the starting Center and for Magbegor to be the starting Power Forward. That might allow Ezi to avoid having to always be the one to defend the largest bigs in the WNBA and still be an elite post defender.

Playoff Prep

The Storm lost their first six games in August. They finished 6-8. They went 6-2 in their final eight games of the month. During their six-game losing streak, they lost five of those games by four points or less. That means they could have won all of those games if they had just done a couple of things differently. That experience helped them defeat Atlanta in Vancouver, Canada, by two points (80-78) and against Washington, 84-82. Sometimes the difference between winners and losers is one or two plays.

As the Storm look to clinch their playoff spot, the fact that they’ve had a rocky month could actually become a benefit to them. One thing the Atlanta Dream have struggled with this season is closing out close games. Allisha Gray even spoke about that recently. They’ve lost to the Aces 74-72, to Seattle 80-78, to the Valkyries 77-75, to the Storm again 80-79, to the Lynx 96-92 in OT, and to the Liberty 86-81 in a Commissioner’s Cup game where Atlanta led by nearly 20 and that cost the Dream a trip the CC Championship game.

The Minnesota Lynx have been the top WNBA team by far this season. They have shown the most consistency and dominance. However, in sports generally, sometimes the team that is used to winning all their games throughout the year struggles in close matches because they aren’t accustomed to those moments. You could even say this might have played a role in Minnesota’s recent loss to Seattle. Everything was so easy for them early on. They built another 20-point lead against an opponent, thinking they could easily repeat the same kind of win. Once Seattle fought back and took the momentum, the Lynx started complaining to the refs instead of executing their plays. An undefeated fighter doesn’t know how to react once they see their own blood. We saw signs of that as the Storm turned a 21-point deficit into a 14-point victory.

Now I’m not saying the Storm are better off than either the Lynx or the Dream. They would be in much better shape if they were a Top 3 seed like those two teams. But I do think that a team that has been through all the adversity that the Storm have been through this year can benefit from their experiences.

One thing I do like about the Storm is that they can win in different ways. We saw them shoot the lights out in Minnesota, handing the Lynx a taste of their own medicine by knocking down 16 three-pointers on 49% shooting. At the same time, Seattle can also win by clamping down their opponents. They held the Chicago Sky to under 70 points, holding them under 20 points in all four quarters. The Storm lead the WNBA in blocks (5.0 per game) and steals (8.5 per game). Seattle ranks third in the WNBA with points in the paint at 39.3 per game.

I spoke with Coach Noelle Quinn about this after the victory against Chicago.

Quinn said, “Yeah, it's very important because, as you guys know, the matchups vary team to team. You have to be able to, I think consistently we've had a paint presence scoring at a high clip in the paint and being efficient in that area. Our threes as of late have picked up, which is good. And so if teams want to load up, you know, we have to make sure we're knocking down some outside shots. And then defensively, all the schemes that we can go through from switching to being big, being a little bit smaller, being athletic. There are a variety of ways in which we have learned that we can play. And that's going to be very important. You know, going into whoever we're playing. We have to get there first, though, right? But... I think we're learning as a group tendencies of ourselves and getting comfortable there. You know, our roster has shifted late in the season, so there are some adjustments that have happened. But I think we're finding pockets and understanding who we are and how we need to play.”

Of course, the Storm have their deficiencies. They rank dead last in rebounds at 31.1 RPG. They are last in Free Throw attempts per game as well, at 15.9 attempts per game. Seattle ranks 5th in three-point percentage at 34.1%, which is pretty good. But they’re 9th in three-point attempts per game with 22.0. Analytics will tell you that it’s important to take a lot of three-pointers. Threes are worth more than twos, and shooting 40% from beyond the arc is better than shooting 50% from two-point range.

With the help of Slim Sykes, ideally, they’ll be able to start getting to the Free Throw line more often. So far, it hasn’t made a huge difference. They averaged 15.7 FTA before Sykes arrived and 16.5 after. She did have eight free throw attempts against Minnesota, and the Storm earned six more free throws against Minnesota.

If the Storm reach the playoffs, they will be battle-tested, and just maybe their rough August will be a blessing in disguise.

Post-Game Press Conference

If you prefer the audio versions, you can listen to them below. I’ve also included Coach Quinn’s pre-game interview.

Player Interviews

Coach’s Quotes

Pre-Game Interview:

Post-Game Interview:

Notes:
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Thanks to Her Hoop Stats and Across the Timeline for being great resources.
Photo Credits: Seattle Storm/WNBA Photography

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