The WNBA Playoffs begin at the end of September, but we essentially already know which eight teams will compete for the championship. Only the Seattle Storm and the Connecticut Sun have officially been eliminated from the postseason, but that reality will hit the other five teams by month's end.
Realistically, the Portland Fire are the only team that could sneak in, but it would still be a major uphill climb. The Fire sit in 9th place in the WNBA standings with a 15-20 record. They are 5.0 games behind the Dallas Wings for the final playoff spot. Both Dallas and Portland have nine games remaining. If the Fire were to win out, they’d finish 24-20 and win the season series against the Wings. That means Dallas would have to finish 5-4 to reach 25-19 and clinch the playoffs. But with every Portland loss, Dallas can give away another game. If Portland goes 9-1, Dallas can finish 4-5. If Portland finishes 8-2, the Wings can finish 3-6. You get the point. The numbers don’t favor the team from Oregon.
Assuming no miraculous finishes or complete collapses, the eight WNBA playoff teams will be: Minnesota Lynx, Golden State Valkyries, Las Vegas Aces, Indiana Fever, Atlanta Dream, New York Liberty, Washington Mystics, and the Dallas Wings. As of this writing, that is the order they sit in the standings.
What will be interesting is seeing which of these eight teams finishes in the Top 4. The four best teams of the regular season all get home court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. Where things stand, all eight teams could finish in the Top 4. Even though the Dallas Wings have had a rough go as of late (3-7 in their last 10), they’re still just 3.0 games out of the 4th seed. But from a practical standpoint, I can’t picture them or the Washington Mystics (20-14) moving all the way up to the fourth spot.
On the opposite end, the Minnesota Lynx (29-7) have been the best team all year long and hold a 3.5-game advantage over the current second seed, the Golden State Valkyries (24-9). With just eight games remaining, if the Lynx finish 6-2, they will clinch the #1 overall seed. For every game the Valkyries lose out of their remaining 11, that’s one fewer win Minnesota needs. The Lynx are a lock for a Top 4 seed. They’re 5.5 games ahead of the current 4th seed, the Indiana Fever (23-12).
The Valkyries are likely to finish as a Top 4 seed as well. They’re 3.5 games ahead of the Atlanta Dream (the 5th seed) with 11 games to play. But they also have the fourth-easiest schedule remaining. They play seven of their remaining 11 games against non-playoff teams. However, they still have some challenges ahead, as they will have to battle the Minnesota Lynx twice (a team they’ve never beaten) and the New York Liberty.
Next up is the Las Vegas Aces. They own the third-best record at 24-12 and have eight games remaining. The Aces have the easiest remaining schedule in the league. They play one playoff team in their last eight games. They face the league-worst Seattle Storm (7-30) twice in September. They also play the Toronto Tempo, who have lost 10 straight, twice as well. As winners of three out of the last four WNBA titles, Las Vegas is battle-tested, has the superstars, and the veteran experience to close out the regular season strong. Last year, they ended the season on a 16-game win streak.
If those three teams all clinch a Top 4 seed, that leaves just one more spot to be battled over between three other teams. The Indiana Fever currently hold the 4th seed with a 23-12 record. They have nine games remaining, and five of them are against playoff teams. That includes two against the league-leading Minnesota Lynx. On Sunday, they picked up a huge 95-91 OT victory over the 5th-seeded Atlanta Dream.
The Atlanta Dream (21-13) and the New York Liberty (22-14) both have a chance to sneak into a Top 4 seed. Atlanta has 10 games remaining, with four games against playoff teams. The Liberty have just eight games left on their schedule, but it’s the second-most difficult in the WNBA. New York will battle Minnesota, Golden State, Indiana, and Atlanta twice. It might be difficult for them to move up, especially because Leonie Fiebich and Satou Sabally remain out with injuries. Of the teams that have a legit chance, they have the hardest path to get there.
I think realistically, it’ll come down to Indiana and Atlanta. Those two teams would then face each other in the playoffs if they finish 4th and 5th. The Fever beat the Dream in the first round of the playoffs in 2025. It would be an exciting matchup because the two teams split the season series 2-2. And there would certainly be a little extra drama as it would be the WNBA’s first playoff matchup between Caitlin Clark and Angel Reese.
With that said, I wouldn’t rule out the Fever moving up in the standings either. With their big win on Sunday, Indiana is only 1/2 game behind Las Vegas for the third seed. They’ve also been one of the hottest teams in the league since July 1st. They’ve won 12 out of their last 16 games, and are 8-2 in their last 10.
My prediction is that the Minnesota Lynx, Golden State Valkyries, Las Vegas Aces, and Indiana Fever will earn home court advantage. We might see the Aces move to the two-seed or the Fever supplant the Aces over these final games. I believe the eventual 2026 WNBA champion comes from this group and, more specifically, either Minnesota, Las Vegas, or Indiana.
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