“With Ezi’s injury, I would say the Storm are rather fortunate that they drafted 6’4” Awa Fam third overall in the WNBA Draft. Only a few days ago, that selection looked like the team was adding to an area of strength. Now it feels fortuitous that the draft played out that way for Seattle.”
On another note, I can get behind tanking for Juju. 🤩😜
Yes, it makes total sense now, since they knew what we didn't, about Ezi's injury. I look forward to watching Awa and Flau play, if not expecting any miracles from them this season, and yes, waiting for Juju hopefully!
Assuming JuJu is coming out in 2027 in this scenario (which I think she will), I would go with a Top 3 in 2027. Sarah Strong is probably the top prospect overall between the two years, but I feel Watkins would fit better in Seattle. I have the biggest reservations about Hidalgo because we know she's not going to get 7 steals a game against WNBA players. UConn plays with such structure and Hidalgo wasn't nearly as effective compared to a lot of her other opponents she has faced. With that said, point guard still might be a big need in Seattle depending on how Hiedeman, Melbourne, and Mair play this season.
I'm also higher on Madison Booker than I am Joyce Edwards, but I reserve the right to change my mind. Even if the Storm didn't land JuJu but ended up with Booker, I'd be excited for the future of the franchise.
Obviously, a lot of this depends on what happens this season. Seattle might end up with the 4th or 5th overall pick, and they can still add another talented piece. We also need to observe what happens throughout this season. I talked about the PG above already. Does Flau'jae cement herself as the future SG for the foreseeable future? Is Seattle able to successfully run the lineup of Awa, Ezi, and Dom? What progress and development does Malonga and Fam make this year? Etc.
Given Ezi and possibly Awa may not be available for significant time at the beginning, do you think there's any chance the Storm may seek a free agent big (such as Tina Charles?) to help fill the immediate void, or is there even any cap space?
There is definitely cap space, but I don't think it would make sense because the WNBA doesn't have things like the NFL where a player can be put on the PUP list (Physically Unable to Perform). In the NFL, they can free up roster spots and then be re-added later. In the WNBA, it doesn't work that way. So if they added Tina Charles, they would have to get rid of an additional player, like Mackenzie Holmes or Taina Mair as examples. It wouldn't be worth it. All Tina Charles would do is help the team possibly win, which defeats the purpose of trying to rebuild. Charles would also then take away development time and experience from players like Awa Fam and Mackenzie Holmes. I don't see a scenario where this would be a benefit to the Storm.
I wonder if the draft will be based on winning percentages, rather than raw records.
Juju is nice to ponder, but there’s no guarantee she opts into the draft. Her decision may be heavily influenced by where she might end up. Fortunately, there will be some other decent options if she waits.
Unless things have changed from last season with the new CBA, I believe they are still based on the two year records of the teams. I believe it's based on win percentage, like you said, or that it it's based on total plus/minus wins. For instance, the Storm were a +2 last year. If the worst team in the WNBA is the Portland Fire with let's say a record of 10-34. The Storm would need to finish 8-36 or 7-37 in order to have better odds than Portland.
It won't be based on total number of wins, so the fact that the Storm won 23 games last year isn't as important as the fact that they finished two games above .500. Dallas, Chicago, and Connecticut will all have the best "starting point" to get another top draft pick because they were all -20 games below .500 last year. However, both Chicago and Dallas are hoping to make the playoffs this year. If either does, then obviously they won't be a part of the lottery and it won't matter what they did in 2025.
Just looking at the 2026 rosters and teams they were bad last season, the Connecticut Sun soon to be Houston Comets have the easiest path to the best odds for the #1 pick. But we have seen plenty of times in the past, where the top team doesn't necessarily get the #1 pick. In 2022, I believe the Washington Mystics had the third-best odds, but moved up to #1. Then traded with Atlanta back down to #3 and extra draft picks. I believe the year the Aces got Jackie Young, Las Vegas had the 3rd or 4th-best odds to win and moved all the way up to #1.
Even if the Storm don't finish with the best odds (probably unlikely), if they can finish in the Top 3 they will still be in a great position.
A top 3 pick is probably essential in 2027 looking strictly at college talent (not counting players made potentially available by age). 2028 looks much deeper for college talent.
Juju seems number one, of this group, assuming she declares. I love Hidalgo, though the track record of miniature point guards isn’t great, but she is so disruptive, there’s no safe space on the court against her. She’s also a lot stronger than she seems. Booker, would be next year in line. Safer than Hidalgo, but lower ceiling.
I gotta add I don't think the Storm wil be 'bad enough', even while rebuilding, to beat out teams like Pdx, Tor, Conn, Chi, etc. for worst record in the league, to necessarily be in the running for Juju, but I'm not sure how next year's draft will work, and there appear to be quite a few good picks in the class of '27, so, well, one can always dream here.
As I just added below Eric's post. It probably is unrealistic that the Storm will finish with the best odds for the #1 pick because they were +2 above a .500 record in 2025 and there are teams like Dallas, Chicago, and Connecticut that were all minus 20+ below .500. However, I think there is a decent chance at least one of Chicago or Dallas makes the playoffs this year. If they do, then what they did in 2025 no longer matters at all. The two-year rule only applies if the team misses the playoffs that current season.
From your list, I think Toronto and Chicago will likely be better than Seattle. I think the Sky have a chance to make the playoffs with their revamped roster. I think Portland will probably be the worst team in the WNBA, but then I thought Golden State would be too and they ended up being a playoff team.
It's difficult to say how the Storm will do this season with so much uncertainty of the younger players and the new coaching staff. I have a very difficult time believing they will be a playoff team because 7 teams will miss the playoffs this year. But whether they are are a Bottom 3 team or like the 9th or 10th seed remains to be seen. If they make the playoffs they will have massively outperformed expectations for this season.
Even if the Storm don't end up with the best odds, we've seen teams win the lottery without having the highest chance to win. But there is also enough talent in the draft, that if they get #2 or #4, I'm sure there will be a very talented player available for them to draft.
Mackenzie Holmes developed beautifully in Australia this year. She was one of the leading players and was named in the All-WNBL First Team for the 2025/26 season.
We have been lucky enough to watch a number of USA players develop in the WNBL over the past few years that have gone on to strong roles for their WNBA teams. To name a few, Veronica Burton, Hayley Jones and Naz Hilmon two years ago. Kayla Thornton, Monique Billings and Marina Mabrey, three years ago. Jackie Young and Brittney Sykes four years ago.
If Mackenzie can bring the way she played in Australia this season to the Storm………she will be fantastic!!
This is a great point. Sami Whitcomb honed her craft in Australia for many years before being signed to the WNBA. She's been a great role player for several years and a key part to WNBA Championship teams.
I have to admit, I’m curious about the timeline here. You state that Ezi’s injury took place on March 14th. She was ‘cored’ by the Storm on April 7th, and signed a three-year deal prior to the draft on April 12th. Did the Storm know the full extent of her injury when they decided to pay her superstar money? If so, that would suggest to me that they had already made a decision to go uber-young and rebuild (I’ll say it: tank). Since they signed Ezi prior to the draft, it suggests to me that they didn’t believe Fam would be available at #3. I can’t envision that the Storm would have signed an injured Ezi to that contract had they truly believed Fam would be available.
I'm sure they knew the extent of her injury. This also explains why they would want to sign her to a multi-year deal. It makes less sense to just sign her to a one-year deal if she's going to miss 1/2 the season (or at least 1/4). The severity of the injury also would explain why the Storm didn't trade her. Not that I even thought they should, but that was always an option. I'm sure Sandy Brondello had interest in acquiring her, although she would have known about the injury being that she's the Opals head coach.
I think people may get too caught up on Ezi's contract. Magbegor is only 26 years old, 6'4", great length, excellent defensive instincts, has already proved she's one of the best defensive players for the past four years running, and she proved that when she was more of an option on offense (in 2023) she put up All-Star numbers. If you have a player that is barely over 25, is one of the league's best rim protectors and defenders, and can average anywhere close to 15/10, that deserves max or near-max money. These types of players don't grow on trees.
Signing Ezi to a multi-year deal doesn't have a major impact on drafting Awa Fam because Fam is only 19 years old. There is still the chance that they make a lineup of Dom, Ezi, and Awa work. They will have more than one year to give that a try. If it doesn't, they could either trade Magbegor before the final year of her deal, or let her walk in Free Agency in 2029.
I think the Storm were comfortable with any of Azzi Fudd, Olivia Miles, or Awa Fam. Since they had the 3rd pick, they had to just wait and see what Dallas and Minnesota did ahead of them.
This part!
“With Ezi’s injury, I would say the Storm are rather fortunate that they drafted 6’4” Awa Fam third overall in the WNBA Draft. Only a few days ago, that selection looked like the team was adding to an area of strength. Now it feels fortuitous that the draft played out that way for Seattle.”
On another note, I can get behind tanking for Juju. 🤩😜
Yes, it makes total sense now, since they knew what we didn't, about Ezi's injury. I look forward to watching Awa and Flau play, if not expecting any miracles from them this season, and yes, waiting for Juju hopefully!
Jeff: Ponder this in the context of the Storm…
Potential Draft 2027: Juju Watkins, Hannah Hidalgo, Madison Booker
Potential Draft 2028: Sarah Strong, Mikayla Blakes, Joyce Edwards
In which grouping is a top 3 selection most beneficial for the Storm?
Assuming JuJu is coming out in 2027 in this scenario (which I think she will), I would go with a Top 3 in 2027. Sarah Strong is probably the top prospect overall between the two years, but I feel Watkins would fit better in Seattle. I have the biggest reservations about Hidalgo because we know she's not going to get 7 steals a game against WNBA players. UConn plays with such structure and Hidalgo wasn't nearly as effective compared to a lot of her other opponents she has faced. With that said, point guard still might be a big need in Seattle depending on how Hiedeman, Melbourne, and Mair play this season.
I'm also higher on Madison Booker than I am Joyce Edwards, but I reserve the right to change my mind. Even if the Storm didn't land JuJu but ended up with Booker, I'd be excited for the future of the franchise.
Obviously, a lot of this depends on what happens this season. Seattle might end up with the 4th or 5th overall pick, and they can still add another talented piece. We also need to observe what happens throughout this season. I talked about the PG above already. Does Flau'jae cement herself as the future SG for the foreseeable future? Is Seattle able to successfully run the lineup of Awa, Ezi, and Dom? What progress and development does Malonga and Fam make this year? Etc.
Given Ezi and possibly Awa may not be available for significant time at the beginning, do you think there's any chance the Storm may seek a free agent big (such as Tina Charles?) to help fill the immediate void, or is there even any cap space?
There is definitely cap space, but I don't think it would make sense because the WNBA doesn't have things like the NFL where a player can be put on the PUP list (Physically Unable to Perform). In the NFL, they can free up roster spots and then be re-added later. In the WNBA, it doesn't work that way. So if they added Tina Charles, they would have to get rid of an additional player, like Mackenzie Holmes or Taina Mair as examples. It wouldn't be worth it. All Tina Charles would do is help the team possibly win, which defeats the purpose of trying to rebuild. Charles would also then take away development time and experience from players like Awa Fam and Mackenzie Holmes. I don't see a scenario where this would be a benefit to the Storm.
I wonder if the draft will be based on winning percentages, rather than raw records.
Juju is nice to ponder, but there’s no guarantee she opts into the draft. Her decision may be heavily influenced by where she might end up. Fortunately, there will be some other decent options if she waits.
Unless things have changed from last season with the new CBA, I believe they are still based on the two year records of the teams. I believe it's based on win percentage, like you said, or that it it's based on total plus/minus wins. For instance, the Storm were a +2 last year. If the worst team in the WNBA is the Portland Fire with let's say a record of 10-34. The Storm would need to finish 8-36 or 7-37 in order to have better odds than Portland.
It won't be based on total number of wins, so the fact that the Storm won 23 games last year isn't as important as the fact that they finished two games above .500. Dallas, Chicago, and Connecticut will all have the best "starting point" to get another top draft pick because they were all -20 games below .500 last year. However, both Chicago and Dallas are hoping to make the playoffs this year. If either does, then obviously they won't be a part of the lottery and it won't matter what they did in 2025.
Just looking at the 2026 rosters and teams they were bad last season, the Connecticut Sun soon to be Houston Comets have the easiest path to the best odds for the #1 pick. But we have seen plenty of times in the past, where the top team doesn't necessarily get the #1 pick. In 2022, I believe the Washington Mystics had the third-best odds, but moved up to #1. Then traded with Atlanta back down to #3 and extra draft picks. I believe the year the Aces got Jackie Young, Las Vegas had the 3rd or 4th-best odds to win and moved all the way up to #1.
Even if the Storm don't finish with the best odds (probably unlikely), if they can finish in the Top 3 they will still be in a great position.
thanks for the clarity, I was wondering about the actual process
A top 3 pick is probably essential in 2027 looking strictly at college talent (not counting players made potentially available by age). 2028 looks much deeper for college talent.
Eric, are you thinking Booker and Hidalgo after Juju? I will have to check out '28, too.
Juju seems number one, of this group, assuming she declares. I love Hidalgo, though the track record of miniature point guards isn’t great, but she is so disruptive, there’s no safe space on the court against her. She’s also a lot stronger than she seems. Booker, would be next year in line. Safer than Hidalgo, but lower ceiling.
right on, thanks Jeff, yes, let's focus on the rebuild and make ready for Juju (?)
I gotta add I don't think the Storm wil be 'bad enough', even while rebuilding, to beat out teams like Pdx, Tor, Conn, Chi, etc. for worst record in the league, to necessarily be in the running for Juju, but I'm not sure how next year's draft will work, and there appear to be quite a few good picks in the class of '27, so, well, one can always dream here.
As I just added below Eric's post. It probably is unrealistic that the Storm will finish with the best odds for the #1 pick because they were +2 above a .500 record in 2025 and there are teams like Dallas, Chicago, and Connecticut that were all minus 20+ below .500. However, I think there is a decent chance at least one of Chicago or Dallas makes the playoffs this year. If they do, then what they did in 2025 no longer matters at all. The two-year rule only applies if the team misses the playoffs that current season.
From your list, I think Toronto and Chicago will likely be better than Seattle. I think the Sky have a chance to make the playoffs with their revamped roster. I think Portland will probably be the worst team in the WNBA, but then I thought Golden State would be too and they ended up being a playoff team.
It's difficult to say how the Storm will do this season with so much uncertainty of the younger players and the new coaching staff. I have a very difficult time believing they will be a playoff team because 7 teams will miss the playoffs this year. But whether they are are a Bottom 3 team or like the 9th or 10th seed remains to be seen. If they make the playoffs they will have massively outperformed expectations for this season.
Even if the Storm don't end up with the best odds, we've seen teams win the lottery without having the highest chance to win. But there is also enough talent in the draft, that if they get #2 or #4, I'm sure there will be a very talented player available for them to draft.
Mackenzie Holmes developed beautifully in Australia this year. She was one of the leading players and was named in the All-WNBL First Team for the 2025/26 season.
We have been lucky enough to watch a number of USA players develop in the WNBL over the past few years that have gone on to strong roles for their WNBA teams. To name a few, Veronica Burton, Hayley Jones and Naz Hilmon two years ago. Kayla Thornton, Monique Billings and Marina Mabrey, three years ago. Jackie Young and Brittney Sykes four years ago.
If Mackenzie can bring the way she played in Australia this season to the Storm………she will be fantastic!!
This is a great point. Sami Whitcomb honed her craft in Australia for many years before being signed to the WNBA. She's been a great role player for several years and a key part to WNBA Championship teams.
glad to hear, with the changes and Ezi's injury, she will likely have a chance to show early on
I have to admit, I’m curious about the timeline here. You state that Ezi’s injury took place on March 14th. She was ‘cored’ by the Storm on April 7th, and signed a three-year deal prior to the draft on April 12th. Did the Storm know the full extent of her injury when they decided to pay her superstar money? If so, that would suggest to me that they had already made a decision to go uber-young and rebuild (I’ll say it: tank). Since they signed Ezi prior to the draft, it suggests to me that they didn’t believe Fam would be available at #3. I can’t envision that the Storm would have signed an injured Ezi to that contract had they truly believed Fam would be available.
I'm sure they knew the extent of her injury. This also explains why they would want to sign her to a multi-year deal. It makes less sense to just sign her to a one-year deal if she's going to miss 1/2 the season (or at least 1/4). The severity of the injury also would explain why the Storm didn't trade her. Not that I even thought they should, but that was always an option. I'm sure Sandy Brondello had interest in acquiring her, although she would have known about the injury being that she's the Opals head coach.
I think people may get too caught up on Ezi's contract. Magbegor is only 26 years old, 6'4", great length, excellent defensive instincts, has already proved she's one of the best defensive players for the past four years running, and she proved that when she was more of an option on offense (in 2023) she put up All-Star numbers. If you have a player that is barely over 25, is one of the league's best rim protectors and defenders, and can average anywhere close to 15/10, that deserves max or near-max money. These types of players don't grow on trees.
Signing Ezi to a multi-year deal doesn't have a major impact on drafting Awa Fam because Fam is only 19 years old. There is still the chance that they make a lineup of Dom, Ezi, and Awa work. They will have more than one year to give that a try. If it doesn't, they could either trade Magbegor before the final year of her deal, or let her walk in Free Agency in 2029.
I think the Storm were comfortable with any of Azzi Fudd, Olivia Miles, or Awa Fam. Since they had the 3rd pick, they had to just wait and see what Dallas and Minnesota did ahead of them.