The first round of the WNBA playoffs concluded on Friday night with an exciting game between the Dallas Wings and the Golden State Valkyries. Despite the lower-scoring affair, the game was filled with plenty of drama. The underdog 7th-seeded Wings team got off to a strong start and led by five at the end of the first period. They increased that lead to seven at the half. Things started to look bleak for the Valkyries as the Wings went on a 20-0 run between the end of the 2nd quarter and the beginning of the third. The crowd in Ballhala was stunned as their team trailed by 16 points nearly midway through the third period. Fortunately for Golden State, they had plenty of time left to right the ship, and they outscored Dallas 40-20 over the final 16 minutes of the game to win 77-73. With that outcome set, we now know which final four teams have advanced to the semifinals.
#4 Seed Atlanta Dream versus #8 Seed New York Liberty
The Atlanta Dream swept the Washington Mystics 2-0 in their first-round matchup. And somewhat surprisingly, the New York Liberty swept the #1 seed Minnesota Lynx 2-0 in their series. The two Eastern Conference teams will battle it out for a chance to play in the WNBA Finals.
Atlanta won the season series 2-1:
Liberty 104 - Dream 90
Liberty 84 - Dream 95
Liberty 65 - Dream 83
The Dream won two out of the three games these two teams played, but the two they won were at the very end of the season, with the final game being the last game of the regular season, and New York not having anything to play for. The Liberty sat Breanna Stewart, their best player, so I’m not sure how much value we can gain from that 18-point Atlanta win.
But it should also be noted that in New York’s lone win, they still had a healthy Satou Sabally, who scored 19 points in 17 minutes off the bench. The Liberty were without Sabrina Ionescu in that game.
I feel the middle game is the best one to go off of, as both teams played their expected starters and most played over 30 minutes. In that game, the Dream beat the Liberty in New York by 11 points. They had extremely balanced scoring with five players scoring 14+ points. Jordin Canada led the way with 19 points and nine assists. Angel Reese had 18 points and 10 rebounds. And DeWanna Bonner added 17 points off the bench. For the Liberty, Stewie finished with a game-high 27 points and 14 rebounds. Jonquel Jones added 18 points and 12 rebounds. Sabrina Ionescu and rookie Pauline Astier combined for 30 points.
I’m excited to watch this series play out. I think both teams can win, and I wouldn’t be surprised at all if it goes the full five games. Atlanta will have homecourt advantage in the 2-2-1 format (first two in Atlanta, next two in New York, and last one in Atlanta). The Liberty have more playoff experience as the core group of Stewie, Jonquel, and Sabrina won the WNBA Championship in 2024, and Stewart won two additional titles with the Seattle Storm. Atlanta has some experience as Jordin Canada won two titles with Seattle in a reserve role, and DeWanna Bonner was an important piece on the 2014 Mercury championship team, but I’d still give the edge to New York in that regard.
This one is tough for me to predict. I think Breanna Stewart is the best player on either team. I think Jonquel Jones at her best is better than anyone on the Dream roster as well. Those two likely push the edge in favor of the Liberty. However, Atlanta has the youth, energy, and speed advantage. It wasn’t that long ago, maybe a month or two ago, that I started to question whether the Liberty’s championship window had closed. We might learn that in this series. I wondered if the Indiana Fever could topple the defending champions to take the crown away from them, similar to what the Aces did to the Storm in 2022, or what the Storm did to the Mercury in 2018. As it turns out, Las Vegas is still the team to beat. Indiana failed to take that next step. Now we’ll find out if Atlanta can take down New York or if the Liberty remain a top title contender.
The Dream have the pieces to win this series. Rhyne Howard and Allisha Gray are excellent perimeter players, Angel Reese’s hustle and energy can turn the tide in their favor, and Jordin Canada is a strong floor general. Breanna Stewart has still shown signs of what made her the best player in the world. Jonquel Jones can take advantage of her size down low as Atlanta is without Brionna Jones. If Sabrina is knocking down threes, New York becomes a very dangerous team. This one should be fun!
Prediction: Liberty win series 3-2
#2 Seed Golden State Valkyries versus the #3 Seed Las Vegas Aces
The Golden State Valkyries survived a tight three-game series 2-1 over the Dallas Wings. The Las Vegas Aces continue their quest to repeat as champions and win their fourth title in five years after toppling the Indiana Fever 2-1. Becky Hammon’s former top assistant coach, Natalie Nakase, will try to take down her mentor in a battle of two Western Conference teams with a trip to the WNBA Finals on the line. The Valkyries are trying to win a championship in just their second year of existence, something unheard of for an expansion franchise. Meanwhile, the Aces are looking to prove they are the most dominant WNBA team since the Houston Comets won four championships in a row to begin league play.
Las Vegas won the season series 3-0:
Aces 91 - Valkyries 81
Aces 84 - Valkyries 79
Aces 92 - Valkyries 73
Vegas swept Golden State in the regular season, and they did it relatively easily, with two of the three victories being in double digits. It should be noted that all three games were played earlier in the season, with the last game taking place on June 21st. I was curious to go back and see if Chennedy Carter had played a big role in any of those games, as she was putting up huge numbers early in the season for the Aces. However, as it turns out, she only played in one of these three games and didn’t have great numbers in that lone game. Carter played just nine minutes in the first matchup and scored six points off the bench. Chennedy was technically on the roster for the other two games, but didn’t play in either due to injury or disciplinary reasons.
The hope is that this series can be competitive instead of another lopsided victory for Las Vegas. It’ll likely be a significant challenge for Golden State as A’ja Wilson is by far the best player on either team. The Valkyries don’t have anyone who can go tit-for-tat against the four-time (likely soon to be five-time) MVP. To make matters worse for Golden State, I would argue that Jackie Young is a better player than anyone on the Valkyries’ roster. That means Vegas will have the two best players on the court pretty much at all times. Is all hope lost for the Valkyries? Not exactly.
What will (hopefully) make this series exciting is that Golden State will have a couple of things going in its favor. Because they finished one game above Las Vegas in the standings (32-12 to 31-13), the Valkyries will own homecourt advantage with the first two games taking place in Ballhalla. Games 1, 2, and 5 (if necessary) will take place at the Chase Center in San Francisco. The other thing they have going for them is that the Valkyries have always been greater than the sum of their parts. They don’t have the massive superstar player like A’ja Wilson, Jackie Young, Breanna Stewart, Jonquel Jones, etc. But as a team, they were better than their competition in almost every game this season.
This matchup truly will come down to whether the Valkyries’ depth can outweight the Aces’ superstar players. Becky Hammon has been notorious for riding her superstars and not utilizing her bench, but that strategy has clearly worked as the Aces have won three titles in four years. Hammon played Chelsea Gray and Jackie Young all 40 minutes. A’ja Wilson would have likely played all 40 as well, but was in a little bit of foul trouble, so she “only” played 37 minutes in the decisive Game 3 against the Fever.
Golden State’s best shot is probably to slow down at least one of Chelsea Gray or Jackie Young. I don’t think anyone is stopping A’ja Wilson, but if they can hold her under 30 points and limit Gray or Young to under 15 points, they might be able to win that way. We know Las Vegas will be without NaLyssa Smith for the rest of the season with a torn ACL. Don’t underestimate that fact, as she had 15 points and nine rebounds in one of the games against Golden State, and 14 points in another Aces’ victory.
On top of being without Smith, Las Vegas might be without other key supportive pieces. Stephanie Talbot was a surprise last-minute scratch in Game 3 and was seen in some type of boot or foot brace on the sidelines. Dana Evans has missed most of the season. If they are without both of those players, the Valkyries’ depth may be able to pull this off, but I feel it’s still a long shot.
Prediction: Aces win series 3-1
Photography Credits: WNBA
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The fact that the Aces swept the Valks in the regular season while the Valks were giving the rest of the league headaches tells me they are just a bad matchup and/or Hammon might have Nakase’s number. Valks could steal one or two early or at home but I feel like this is not the team they wanted to meet.
Not so sure about the other matchup, but I would love to see Atlanta make it to the finals.